The Investment Strategy Making For Imported Equipment Based On Online Algorithm

In recent years, the national policy encouragement offers a solid basis for expandingimport. Because imported advanced equipment plays an important role not only in raising thebar for the whole industry but also in strengthening self-creativity. But with the developmentof globalization, capital-starved and faster information transfer, the investors face strongpressure in equipment investment. In this context, the research of online investing has someinstructive significance to imported investment of equipment. To solve this problem, primaryresearch used Bayesian methods to predict the demand of assets, and then proposed modelswith a probability distribution. Unfortunately, it is hart to model the accurate distribution forvariables under the rapid advancements of actual market. And even the accurate distributioncan be obtained, we can only determine optimal strategies based on this probability, whichmay be far from the offline strategy. In order to supplement weaknesses of traditionalmethods, this paper discusses more in the online investment, such as when to invest theimported equipment, how to choose the investment, how to trading with minimized costs andso on. Then we establish some strategies based on market factors and decision-makers’different risk preference, and design the optimal strategy and competitive ratio by using themethod of online algorithm and competitive analysis. This finding will rich and improveexisting models for online rental problem, and also provide theoretical basis and feasibleplans of investment decision for investors to select. The research contents are as follows:(1) Based on the fact that investor has several lease options in addition to pure rent andbuy options which are discussed in classical ski-rental problem, we propose online decisionmodel with multiple options. The investor not only can choose pure rent or buy option, butalso can choose the strategy that paying a part of the purchase cost and getting a lower rentalcost. Firstly, we investigate optimal offline strategy, and then present deterministic optimalonline strategy and competitive ratio by using online algorithm. Finally, numerical analysisillustrates that the competitive performance changes with the different multiple options.(2) Based on the fact that rental cost and purchase price of equipment generally continueto rise as time goes, we put forward the online strategy for rental problem both with interestrate and increasing price index, and also propose the risk-reward model based on probabilistic forecasts. Firstly, we design the optimal investment strategy and competitive ratio for thisproblem. Then, under the risk-reward framework, we discuss the maximum reward strategybased on the given risk tolerance and the future forecast. More, we propose another riskmodel which can obtain the minimum risk strategy under the given reward level and futureforecast. Finally, the optimal competitive performance of the strategy is discussed andillustrated by numerical analysis, which shows that the competitive performance of onlinestrategy increases significantly in the risk-reward models with probabilistic forecast.(3) Based on the fact of inflation and many companies need more and more equipmentwhen their sizes are getting bigger, we present a risk control model for multiple equipmentleasing problem. Firstly, the online and offline strategies are proposed respectively accordingto Karp’s model with the factor of inflation. Then to improve the competitive ratio in Karp’smodel, the risk control strategy is discussed with the hypothesis that device is continuous andseparable. Furthermore, when consider that the number of devices investing in realdecision-making must be integer, we reconstruct and optimize the risk control model to gain anew approximate strategy. Finally, the optimal competitive performance of the strategy isdiscussed by numerical analysis, which shows that the competitive performance of onlinestrategy is affected by the fact of inflation and the ways of investing.(4) Based on the fact that the payment of the imported equipment is made in foreigncurrency can be involved in significant foreign exchange risks because of the fluctuation inexchange rates, we propose a new model to deal with this leasing problem. Firstly, someexpectations about bounds of exchange rate are made to establish a new reservation pricepolicy according to Yaniv’s model of one way trading. Then one category of risk reversalportfolio business named foreign exchange call option is introduced to build the strategy. Atlast, we discuss the combination strategy of the exchange rate expectations and renminbioptions trading by using the method of one way trading online algorithms. This study showsthat the combination of two strategies have a significant effect on online imported equipmentdecision for financing arrangements.