Competitive Analysis Of Paper Gold Trading Online Problem Under Uncertain Environment

With the development of the gold market, the paper gold trading hasbecome an important way of investment. Facing the irregular fluctuation ofgold, investor needs to decide in which point he will buy or sell, which canmake the price range is enough big, achieving maximize returns. Facing thiskind of dynamic investment decision problem, traditional optimization methodcan’t meet the requirements, so we use the online theory to deal with thisproblem, which assumes that we can’t know and predict the exact informationin the future, the decision results in any cases are always within the definitescope of the off-line optimal decision, therefore, it can provide a guarantee forthe efficiency of gold trading in the worst case.This paper analyses the decision of the investors in the paper gold tradingfrom the point of theirs, and provide the purchase price, selling price andtrading quantity to make guidance. In the process of study we present three different online trading strategyconsidering different situations with online optimization theory. First, we givethe one way trading strategy, using the method of competitive analysis to buildmodel by adjusting the classic optimal reservation price, and conclude that thenew paper gold to buy and sell the price. Then, considering the actual situation,the paper gold investors usually have the prediction to future price changing,and in order to obtain higher returns, they would rather take some risks. So,based on the original model and join risk and prediction two parameters, wepresent the risk-reward model. Finally, when the gold price is down, we givethe two stages trading strategy based on the idea of pyramid stock investmentto avoid risk.In view of the above three strategies, this paper proves the competitiveratio respectively and makes the numerical computation. Then we can see thedecision results in any cases are always within the definite scope of theoff-line optimal decision. In addition, the risk-reward model and the twostages trading strategy can meet the needs of investors in the different situationand are of stronger superiority.