A Study Of The Moderate Rate Of Fixed-asset Investment In China At The Present Stage

Since reform and opening-up, China maintained a high-speed growth in the economy as awhole, fixed-asset investment as the main driving force of economic growth, has played animportant role. But along with the rapid growth of the investment in fixed assets, investmentproportion is higher and higher. An increasingly high proportion also brought a series ofproblems such as investment performance declines, inflation, economic structural imbalancesand so on. Based on this situation, combined with China’s economic development stagecharacteristics and the target of economic development, construct the moderate rate offixed-asset investment range, for the government in the new period, under a new concept ofdevelopment, develop macroeconomic regulation and control policy is of great significance.This article based on the lag between fixed-asset investment and GDP, apply statisticalmethods of verification and quantitatively measure the lag relationship between the two. Then,based on the lag relationship between them, build a relevant model to calculate appropriaterate of fixed-asset investment range. The main theoretical basis for: reasonable scale offixed-asset investment should be to keep economic growth and at the same time to control theinflation rate affordable, also can guarantee of investment benefit. Specifically includes threeaspects: first, the lowest fixed-asset investment rate should ensure the smooth progress ofreproduction, that is, the proportion of fixed-asset investment from GDP at least canmaintained not below previous year of production capacity, closed system assumes growthmomentum; Second, with the constant improvement of the fixed-asset investment rate,investment efficiency will reduce gradually, when less than a vigilance, a low rate of return offixed-asset investment will increase the risk of the financial system, and fixed-assetinvestment rate should ensure investment efficiency higher than the above vigilance; Third,excessive growth of fixed-asset investment will push up inflation, thus the highest growth rateof investment should control the rate of inflation within the scope of the sustainable economicdevelopment.By the relevant analytical studies, this article drew the following conclusions: theinfluence of the fixed-asset investment to GDP exists time-delay, lag period is about1year;Based on this, the reasonable interval of fixed-asset investment rate in our country at presentstage should be between27.94%and45.30%, the growth rate of fixed-asset investment shallnot be higher than24.58%. Compared to other countries, the concludes of this article is significantly higher, therefore,the article then explains why our country need to maintain a higher scale of fixed-assetinvestment at present stage, and at the same time, on how to improve the efficiency offixed-asset investment and gradually reduce the rate of fixed-asset investment eventually, putforward some opinions and suggestions.