Study On Credit Risk Evaluation Of Real Estate Development Loans In China

Since the year2000, China’s real estate industry was booming. Its demand forcapital had become more and more urgent. However, direct financing in our countrydeveloped very slowly, so real estate development funds rely too much oncommercial bank loans, about60%—70%of which were from bank loans. Thecurrent economic growth was slowdown in China and macroeconomic policy wasstrictly. The default probability of real estate loans was serious higher than averagedefault probability of all loans. A series of bank crisis in20th century showed thatbanks’ losses were caused no longer by a separate risk, but by comprehensive causesconcluded market risk, credit risk and operational risk. Thus it entered a stage ofcomprehensive risk management.Based on the background and significance research. This paper revealed theresearch question. Then the research status at home and abroad were reviewed andevaluated. Credit risk theory, evaluation method and the applicability of the Logisticmodel were analyzed. The bank was taken as the main body in the evaluation andaccording to the comprehensive risk management theory, this paper not onlyevaluated the external environment, the loan companies, and started from the banksthemselves, evaluate the bank’s internal control. Then Logistic model was used tomake an empirical analysis.Empirical results showed that Logistic model had a good fitting andforecasting ability to credit risk of real estate development loans in our country, theoverall prediction accuracy was as high as87.0%. Its prediction accuracy rate todefault enterprises reached83.3%, overcome the problem of low predictionaccuracy to default enterprise in the previous research. At the same time, theempirical results showed that the most important influencing factors on credit riskof real estate development loans was external environment. The second were theenterprise’s solvency and cash flow indicators. The third was internal control ofcommercial bank. Finally standing on the point of commercial banks, this paperpropound grasping the national policy and economic cycles, optimizing evaluationindex system, improving internal control system of commercial bank.