| The real estate industry is an important pillar of the national economy,because the industry itself needs a large amount of financing, has a longindustrial chain and great magnitude of influence, therefore wield greatimpact on the national economy. This article first introduced the status quo,characteristics and trends of long-term development of China’s real estateindustry; then it studies the relevance of the real estate industry with nationaleconomy.From the perspective of total output, through the econometrical modelanalysis, this paper combined with China’s actual conditions, to quantify theimpact of real estate on investment, consumption, unemployment and fiscalrevenue. Measured results showed that: Ceteris paribus,1%decrease ininvestment in real estate development, the GDP will be reduced by0.13%1year later;1percentage decline in real estate turnover will make growth ofsocial retail sales decrease about0.05percentage point; Real estate turnoverand the central fiscal revenue does not exist long-term cointegrationrelationship, but Land Use Right(LUR) transferring have sound impact onlocal government revenueFrom the industrial correlation point of view, this paper used theinput-output model quantitativly analysed China’s real estate industry and itscorrelation with other industries. By quantifying the forward, backward, andclockwise correlation effect, and through the static and dynamic analysis, thefollowing is concluded:First of all, China’s real estate industry’s backward driving effect is0.5588, while the forward pushing effect is0.4938, with the total effect,which shows that real estate and other industries are closely associated.Secondly, from the perspective of the type of correlation, China’s realestate and finance and insurance industry is highly correlated. Whether interms of consumption coefficient or direct distribution coefficient, the finance and insurance industry ranks high in real estate related industries. In addition,the Chinese government plays a large role in driving the real estate. China’sreal estate and public administration and social organization linked too highwith each other, indicating the rising of the role of the government in pullingthe industry.5.6%of total real estate output is driven by the governmentdemand.From the the pulling effect of industry on the national economy, theindustry influence and sensitivity of real estate rank top among all sectors.The real estate industry as a whole has remarkable pulling effect on thenational economy. On the other hand, the influence of real estate and initialinput sensitivity coefficients are smaller, indicating each unit of the real estatehas limited pulling impact on economic growth, and real estate should notaccount for too high in proportion of the gross national product, because unitpulling ability of real estate is far below the average level.From the point of view of regional differences, industrial correlationbetween real estate and other industries are not only affected by their owndevelopment, but it is also influenced by other factors. From the calculationresults of Beijing, Zhejiang, Gansu, Xinjiang, Henan Province, Beijing (as arepresentative of eastern city)has a clockwise total driving effect of2.49,which is the highest, well above the national average of1.24. Gansu andXinjiang(as representatives of western city)’s clockwise total driving effectare2.05and2.26respectively, indicating that real estate, similar to theeastern cities, has become the city’s pillar one. However, Henan province(as arepresentative of central city), the real estate industry only has a driving effectof0.6088, lower than the national average. From the point of real estate’sproportion of GDP, the central region is also much lower than that in easternand western regions. Therefore we can see that the role of the real estateindustry in the the central region needs to be vigorously reinforced. |
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