Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycle And Real Estate Market Price Fluctuation Research

The financial risks represented by the high macro leverage and the long-term high real estate market prices are the outstanding problems of the current Chinese economic operation.At present,mainstream views all advocate that monetary policy should pay more attention to financial risks.Traditional monetary policy only uses the inflation gap and output gap as the policy targets,which obviously cannot meet the current social and economic situation.Therefore,this article studies the rules and mechanisms of monetary policy to regulate financial risk,as well as the degree of pegs and policy effects of different monetary policy instruments on these two financial risk targets.In view of the endogenous relationship between price-type and quantitative-type monetary policy and the leverage cycle and real estate market prices,this paper builds a partial equilibrium model of monetary policy and housing prices and bank credit,and on this basis,puts forward monetary policy to regulate financial risk rules Mechanism hypothesis,and verify the hypothesis through TVP-VAR.The results of the study show that: First,price-based monetary policies have long been focused on housing prices,but they have not maintained a long-term target of leverage,and their control over house prices and leverage has been weak.This may be because the current channel of capital cost transmission of interest rates is not smooth.In addition,the interest rate has only a short-term effect on the policy effects of the two types of targets,and lacks long-term durability.One of the main reasons is that many policies do not have long-term coherence;in addition,it is due to the lack of reasonable expectations to guide people such as housing prices.Second,quantitative monetary policy maintained a long-term focus on housing prices and leverage ratios in 2008 and after 2012,respectively,but the degree of pegs was low.From the perspective of policy effects,quantitative monetary policy is more effective in controlling house prices and leverage,and the central bank should further strengthen the implementation of quantitative monetary policy.The innovation of this article includes the following three points.First,construct a partial equilibrium model of the dynamic relationship between housing prices,leverage,and monetary policy to study the differences in the transmission of monetary policy instruments to financial stability goals.Second,the TVP-VAR is used to study the time-varying peg of monetary policy to financial stability goals and the effect of time-varying policies,and to innovate the method of backstepping to obtain the policy time-varying parameters in the policy equation.