The Influence Of The Fluctuation Of The Exchange Rate Of RMB To The Import Trade Of Oil

As the national important strategic resources, oil resources play an important roleto the development of economic. Since the exchange rate reform, with theappreciation of RMB, the spending of the import of oil is huge, And our country oilimports is very low or even zero, oil imports to a large extent can completely replacethe total imports and exports of oil. The international oil is expressed in dollars. Whenentering the Chinese market needs the exchange rate to be converted into RMB, theexchange rate of RMB will have a certain correlation with oil imports. how much theexchange of RMB influences the import of oil? In addition, what kind of currencyexchange rate of RMB is more suitable, is the nominal exchange rate or real effectiveexchange rate? What kind of transmission about exchange rate to the import of oil. Sothe article discussed with these questions.In this paper, first of all, summarizing the study of previous scholars, on the basisof predecessors’ research put forward the mechanism of the influence of the exchangerate of RMB on oil imports, divided into direct effect and indirect effect mechanism,and creatively put forward the output effect and price effect hypothesis, and throughempirical validation, and put forward policy Suggestions.About the method, according to the previous research, this article combines thequalitative and quantitative analysis. Through qualitative analysis, the exchange rateof RMB and the date of oil import are integration in together and using charts toanalysis the relationship of them.As an empirical analysis on the influence of exchange rate of RMB to the importof oil. On the base of using model and method, using the data from September2005toAugust2013, through the method of the impulse response and variancedecomposition, with the LS method, the result shows: in terms of choice of exchangerate, compared with the real effective exchange rate of RMB, in the current period thenominal exchange rate is more significant impact on china’s import of oil, the importof oil is sensitive to the nominal exchange rate of RMB. The nominal exchange rate ofRMB has positive influence on the import of oil, but in the lag length the influence isnegative, this influence can last more than eight months. On the analysis of thetransmission mechanism of the exchange rate of RMB, the relationship of the nominal exchange rate of RMB has influence on industrial added value, in the short term theexchange rate of RMB has positive influence on amount of oil imports, after theinfluence is negative, and there is a positive relationship between industrial addedvalue and amount of oil imports; but through the transmission mechanism of price ofoil is not smooth, the nominal exchange rate of RMB is not the cause of theinternational price of oil, but the price of oil has a positive influence on the spendingimport of oil. The price of oil rises, the expenditures of oil imports will increase, itshows that the expected of oil price is strong, China has a passive position on theimport trade of oil.Combining quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis, founded that China’soil imports not only influenced by domestic economy, compared with the industrialadded value, oil imports also influenced by the exchange rate of RMB and theinternational price of oil. To deal with the problem of oil security, putting forwardsome feasible suggestion should from the perspective of RMB, and should guardagainst the risks of international oil prices, thus in order to solve oil problem providesa multi-angle thinking.