Research On Stock Price Trend Of A Share Listed Insurance Companies

Insurance is an important part of national economy, the development of insurance industry is connected to the security and stability of the society. Since China’s reform and opening up, economy of China developed very quickly and residents’ disposable income rapidly promoted, this situation inspired residents’ demand for insurance products and made insurance industry enter into the golden age of development.At present, the domestic A-share market has four listed insurance companies, they are China life, China Pacific, Ping An of China and New China life insurance company, the four insurance companies take up half of the market share and occupy an very important position in the domestic insurance market. Four listed insurance companies that make investors have opportunity to share the achievements of development of the insurance industry in China. At this point, how to judge the trendency of stock price of listed insurance company, it is particularly important for investors.This paper adopts qualitative and quantitative method. It adopts Analytic Hierarchy Process to analyze the external and internal factors that the listed insurance companies face and then applies Comprehensive Fuzzy Theory to judge the trendency of stock price of listed insurance company. This paper is divided into seven parts. The first part of this paper is introduction, it mainly elaborates background of selected topic, purpose and significance of researching stock pricing about listed insurance companies, research method of this paper, innovation and inadequacy.The second part elaborates mainstream valuation theories, domestic and international research results. The third part introduces the research method of this paper—Comprehensive Fuzzy Theory. In the fourth part, the author divides the external factors that affect the A-share listed insurance companies into three aspects, they are economic and financial environment, population and social environment, policy and law environment. And the paper adopts Analytic Hierarchy Process to analyze every aspect of sub factors. The fifth part separately analyzes four A-shares listed insurance companies in terms of listed insurance companies’ business status, corporate governance and financial situation, and comprehensively acquaints four insurance companies’ situation. The sixth part applies Comprehensive Fuzzy Theory to analyze internal and external factors of A-share listed insurance companies, and judges the trend of the stock prices of listed insurance companies. The seventh part retrospects the whole process of research, and summarizes the paper.Through studying the paper, we get the following conclusions:Stock price of four listed insurance companies are more likely to rise and Ping An of China have the highest investment value among them; Population, policy, law and social environment are favourable for the development of insurance companies in our country, and affected by the macroeconomic situation, economic and financial environment is not good for insurance companies; China Pacific and China life do better in the aspect of business status, Ping An of China and China Pacific performed very well in the aspect of corporate governance and financial situation.