Study On Modified Emergy-Ecological Footprint Of Min Jiang River Basin And Its Socioeconomic Causes

Minjiang River Basin is one of the important economic zone in Fujian Province. It has a pivotal role in the sustainable development of the province’s economic,social and environment. As people using the water resources, land resources, energy resources and other natural resources in Minjiang River Basin,the ecological environment of Minjiang River Basin has been damaged in different degrees.The challenges of economic development are increasingly grim. Therefore, accurate evaluation of the current ecological status of Minjiang River Basin is particularly important. It is in order to find out the problems that in the development of Minjiang River Basin,and to find the solutions of the problems.In this study,we based on the Emergy-Ecological Footprint theory,which combined the traditional Ecological Footprint theory and the Emergy theory.In the Emergy-Ecological Footprint theory,we add fresh water resources and pollutant consumption accounts to improve the model.We based on the modified Emergy-Ecological Footprint model to calculate the ecological footprint ecological carrying capacity and ecological deficit of the Minjiang River from1990to2011. In order to submit the overall appraisal of the development of the society-ecology system in Minjiang River, we choose six important indexes such as million GDP ecological footprint, ecological footprint diversity index,per capita ecological cooperration index, ecological capacity imperfection degree index, ecological pressure index and eco-economical system developing ability.We analysis the relationship between Minjiang River Basin and its social and economic impact factor.To analysis the economic growth,industrial structure changes, structural changes in consumption, population growth and the other factors’ influence for the Ecological footprint of Minjiang River,we respectively use the impulse response function, path analysis, gray correlation analysis, regression analysis theories. Meanwhile, we use the gray prediction method to propose the ecological footprint of Minjiang River Basin. Finally, we the combination of ecological, economic and social status of the Minjiang River, to provide appropriate countermeasures and suggestions for the Minjiang River Basin to achieve sustainable development. The results showed that:1. The ecological footprint of Minjiang River Basin appears fluctuating upward trend from1990to2011.2. Ecological carrying capacity of the Minjiang River Basin appears volatility trends from1990to2011. The maximum was in2010,the minimum was in2003.3. From1990to2011, the main components of the ecological footprint of Minjiang River Basin are arable land and waters. The average proportion of arable land ecological footprint is40.58%. And the average proportion of waters ecological footprint is20.18%.The average proportion of energy land, freshwater resources land, forest land were from10%to15%.Meanwhile, the average proportiongrassland,wetlands and building land are less than2%.4. From1990to2011,the ecological deficit phenomenon of Minjiang River Basin appears fluctuated growth trend. It is worth noting that, in2011and2003the total ecological deficit grew rapidly over the last year, growth rates were89.00%and78.43%.5. From1990to2011,Minjiang River Basin million GDP ecological footprint continuously decline, degree of reduction is90.74%. This trend is in favor of the coordination between natural environment and social-economic systems in Minjiang River Basin.6. The ecological footprint diversity of Minjiang River Basin fristly showed a steady rise,then appeared fluctuating change trend. These changes indicated that the development and utilization of various land of Minjiang River Basin verged to balance.7. The per capita ecological coordination coefficient of the Minjiang River Basin,and that is smaller and appears decreasing trend,especially in recent years.The value is less than the average of22years. The per capita ecological capacity imperfection degree index of the Minjiang River Basin appears fluctuating upward trend. The average was0.79, and was higher than the national average.It showes that the per capita ecological carrying capacity of Minjiang River Basin is weak, the region has brought greater pressure to natural resources and the ecological environment when develop the local economy8. The ecological pressure index of Minjiang River Basin rise significantly.The average value is5.39.From1990to2011, the ecological footprint of the study area continues to maintain a large and fluctuating rise, grow rapidly.But ecological carrying just change a little,that cause ecological pressure in the region increased.9. The ecological-economic development capacity of Minjiang River Basin is on the rise.The value was4.11in2011, and was higher than the national value. It showes that the development of capacity in the region in our country at a high level.10. The various areas Minjiang River basin are in ecological deficit state. The per capita ecological deficit of Ningde City area is5.842hm2, that is the minimum in Minjiang River Basin. The value in Quanzhou area is7.654hm2.The remaining area are relatively larger than Ningde City area and Quanzhou area.The value in Sanming City area is22.456hm2, that is the largest one.The value in Fuzhou, Longyan, Nanping, Putian City area are respectively are14.948hm2,12.706hm2,11.434hm2.11. The overall dynamic trend of the per capita ecological footprint in Minjiang River close to trend in Fujian province.Those trends both changes in volatility rises. From1997to2000, the per capita ecological footprint in Minjiang River was less than Fujian Province. with an average difference of3hm2/cap;In1992,1995,1996,2001,2007and2010, the per capita ecological footprint of Minjiang River didn’t appear to be much different from Fujian Province,with an average difference of0.3hm2/cap. While in the rest of the year, the per capita ecological capacity in Minjiang River Basin is larger than in Fujian Province, with a mean difference of0.68hm2/cap.12. Through the interaction analysis between the ecological footprint and economic growth. We understand that ecological footprint increase means an increase in resource consumption. Resource consumption has a certain role in promoting economic growth in the short term, but to a certain extent, excessive consumption of resources can not bring interaction with economic growth, and even have a negative impact.In the process of economic development in the Minjiang River, the development of economy means the over-exploitation of natural resources.The economic growth in this phase will lead to increased ecological footprint, but in the long run, the impact of the ecological footprint for economic development appear a significantly reduced tendency.13. The added value of first, second and tertiary industry and the ecological footprint have a significant positive correlation. That indicates that the first industry is the most important factors affecting the ecological footprint, and the tertiary industry was the smallest in the three industries. The results showes that the development of tertiary industry has a negative effect in the ecological footprint of Minjiang River basin.Therefore, optimizing the industrial structure and improving the the tertiary industry will have a significant effect on ecological footprint.14. The impact of urban residents’ consumption structure of Minjiang River Basin ecological footprint.Except the food expenditure, the influence between other six expenditure and ecological footprint is close. The sequence is:food consumption> Living> household equipment and services> clothing> Healthcare> Education culture Entertainment services> transport and Communications.15. It has a strong linear relationship between the ecological footprint of Minjiang River and the resident population. When the resident population increased by1million people means an523,000hectares increase in ecological footprint of Minjiang River Basin.Finally, based on these unfavorable factors hinder the sustainable development of the region, and combine the actual situation of the study area,we propose conterplans to made a controlled ecological deficit, and promote ecological and harmonious development of economic Minjiang River Basin.