| The research study of regional sustainable development is an system, which exists objectively,so how to measure the regional complex giant system of normal-social-economic" is hotspot of the study of sustainable development. At present, the methods of monetary and non monetary indicator used the evaluations of regional sustainable development have shortcomings.The analysis method of ecological footprint which used the characteristics of low cost, more objective etc, can estimate the natural assets occupancy level of a regional and comprehensive carrying capacity of the study regional, also can measure whether the regional development of ecological, economic and social is sustainable. This paper used the ecological footprint model to evaluate the sustainable development state and the sustainable development capacity of Eco-economical System comprehensively for the river basin of nandu, the results showed that:(1) The per ecological footprint balanced area increased year by year from2005-2011.The EF(per capita)enhance from1.020162hm2/cap in2005to1.341364hm2/cap in2011, the year average increase rate is31%.The highest growth rates of the land use type is the land of fossil energy, the growth rate is294%.It showed that with the development of economy the basin is more in demand of fossil energy land in recent years, but at present the region doesn't have the forest which is specifically used for the absorption of CO2,causing the great pressure of regional ecological environment, so that it make the important effect in sustainable development of local.(2) The per ecological footprint balanced area decreased year by year from2005-2011. The EF (per capita) reduces from1.887856hm2/cap in2005to1.367662hm2/cap in2011. Since2005, as per capita ecological footprint sustained growth, ecological carrying capacity sustained decreasing, resulted in the ecological deficit was per0.137822hm2/cap in the year of2011, caused the region is in an unsustainable development situation at present.(3) Through the SPSS software Curve Estimation (Linear, Quadratic, Cubic) three methods and Holt Linear trend forecast model is obtained, during2012-2015the per capita ecological demand has been increasing year by year, to2015per capita ecological footprint is1.500149hm2/cap, per capita ecological supply reduced year by year, to2015per capita ecological carrying capacity is0.898368hm2/cap, the valley exist-0.60178hm2/cap per capita ecological deficit. Showing that river basin is not in sustainable development state in the next four years.(4) Through the valley ecological footprint of the GDP in dollar terms, the results are divided into three stages, firstly, million gdp ecological footprint trends are more gently in the year of2005and2006, which indicates that the period from the standard rate of productivity is slower; secondly, from2006to2010, the change of regional ecological footprint in gdp million is more evident, its numeric reduces rapidly, it indicates that with the regional higher standard,the local resources utilization is improved obviously and the contribution of local economic development is higher during the period; thirdly, gdp million is gradually reduce the basic ecological footprint, which indicates the development of regional economic is in the stage of stable and rapid.(5) Through the valley of the ecological footprint of per capita coordinate coefficient calculated, basin in recent years to coordinate coefficient are in per capita ecological near1.414, indicating that the ecological footprint of per capita basin of supply and demand basic to achieve the best condition, the regional ecological economic system sustainable development ability is good. From the ecological footprint of river basin development ability of the diversity and calculation results, indicating that the basin ecology economic system development ability in2005-2006years has a strong tendency to rise, but in-present a strong down trend, showing that the regional policy, productivity level by the influence of factors and its ecological economic system sustainable development ability volatile; And in2007years later the regional ecological economic system development capability for the basin of sustainable development has laid a good foundation.(6)Based on ecological footprint of river basin sustainable development process increased year by year, ecological carrying capacity reduced year by year, the appearance of ecological deficit in unsustainable development, This paper proposed countermeasures and put forward some suggestions and discuss the shortcomings in theory and method. |
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