Analyze The Impact On Chinese Trade In Goods And Countermeasures By Construction Of Rcep

Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a regional economic integration organization which is composed by ASEAN in2011. It proposes to complete in2015.RCEP’s target is to continuously improve the liberalization and better promote trade between member states by revoking the tariff and non-tariff barriers. In this paper, the author will predict the economic effects of China by participating to RCEP basing on the goods field.Basing on the perspective of trade goods, we estimate the economic effects of China’s participation in RCEP by normative and empirical analysis. For the expected economic effect, we mainly considered from the two angles which are the reduction non-tariff barriers and the revocation tariffs. In the specification analysis, we analyze the reduction of tariff barriers will effect Chinese exporting and importing by using the Customs Union theoretical model. On the other hand, about analysis the reduction of non-tariff barriers, we make technical barriers as an example. In the empirical analysis, we use panel VAR model to analyze the impact on China’s economy of reducing tariffs. Model results show, import tariff rate in the RCEP countries fall by1percentage point each can achieve our Chinese annual trade volume growth of4percent. In the long run, while reducing the size of the tariff rate can promote the scale of China’s export growth, butthe demurrage isn’t long, usually within1-2years. Then it will show a trend of increasingly weak. Finally, even if there was still a certain role, but the effect is not very significant. About the impact on reducing non-tariff barriers on China’s economy, we analyze form the cost of goods clearance and the losses causing by technical barriers. The results show that China can at least get additional revenue of＄112.68billion by building RCEP. Finally, we make customs clearance facilitation of Guangxi as an example to explain trade facilitation will increase benefits to member countries in the region by building RCEP.Basing on the normative analysis and empirical analysis, this paper give some suggestions on China’s participation in RCEP constructed corresponding policies and recommendations.