| Ports are not only connection of production and consumption, domestic andforeign transport links, or support critical infrastructure at the national and regionaleconomic development, while it is also driving the regional economic development ofcore strategic resource, so the hinterland of the port is directly related to the rise and fallof the city, and even the rise and fall of the economy. At the southeastern edge ofSichuan basin, Chongqing, Yangtze River and the jialing River here, the geographicZhang Jian. From West to East across the Yangtse river mainstream territory ofChongqing, processes up to665km, national "Twelve-Five" plan focusing onpromoting Chongqing shipping center construction in the upper reaches of the YangtzeRiver, occupies an important place in our country inland river shipping. In2011, theChongqing waterway freight volume in Hong Kong, both breakthrough billion tons ofport throughput, step up to "hundred million ton Harbor" this new stage. Currently,Chongqing foreign trade material above90%is done via shipping, shipping freight,shipping an average transport distance and average tonnage cargo ship three indicators,ranked first in the national inland waterways. According to the plan, Chongqing will bebuilt between2020and shipping center in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River.Chongqing has developed so quickly that one important reason is that afterimpoundment of the three Gorges reservoir area under formal gate, Chongqing sectionof the Yangtze River water level rises, increasing number of cargo in and out of port ofChongqing, Chongqing put forward urgent developments in Hong Kong. With thesustained and rapid development of Chongqing, Chongqing development evaluationresearch in Hong Kong is increasingly urgent.First, this from effects River hub Hong Kong development of factors departure,established has effects River hub Hong Kong development of integrated indicatorssystem, and for the system on various evaluation method for selection, elected has twospecies comparison applies the indicators system of method-improved levels analysislaw and based on fuzzy AHP of main ingredients analysis law, and based on two speciesmethod on Chongqing Hong Kong of development indicators system for has analysis,came has effects Chongqing Hong Kong development of key factor, and for evaluation results made has series recommends, Available for port development in Chongqing portauthorities on policymaking and related issues reference.Secondly, due to the port of port throughput is very important in the developmentof a comprehensive evaluation index system of indicators, its importance similar to thenational GDP. Status of the port enterprise, especially existing ports in the worldranking, to a large extent determined in the annual cargo handling capacity of the port orthe annual container handling capacity, port throughput is often considered a veryimportant indicator of production of port enterprises, so this paper on Chongqing HongKong’s forecast cargo throughput in the coming years. Currently port goods throughputof forecast method has variety, but each a are has its itself of limitations and defects,alone using Shi, often cannot meet forecast precision of requires, so this in overChongqing Hong Kong throughput of research work in the, this author selection GM(1,1) model, and a Yuan linear return model and three times parabola trend line forcombination forecast, such can integrated reflected out three species method ofadvantages, thereby makes throughput forecast results more reliable. |
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