Study On The Actuarial Forecasting Model Of Revenue And Expenditure Of Social Pooling Pension Of Urban Employees

Because of the ageing population, economic slowdown, and low yield in pension management, sustainability of the social security system in our country is faced with great challenge. In order to ensure the future life of the elderly and maintain the social stability, it is of great importance to predict the scale of the balance of payments and put forward some policies to meet the challenge.This thesis made an actuarial model of revenue and expenditure of social pooling pension of urban employees to forecast the financial gap in2011to2050. The model of the population evolution process and model of revenue and expenditure of social pooling pension were established based on statis-tics, demographic and other multi-disciplinary, to estimate the financial gap of future insurance. Also, the reason causing the gap was analyzed and two measures were put forward.By using the model of the population evolution process, sex-age-specific urban population during the year2011to2050was calculated. Next, accord-ing to current policy, the consumptive and contributory population of urban employees was obtained. Statistics indicate that contributory population is obviously decreasing since2039while the consumptive population is on rise year by year and the two nearly equal in2050, which means more and more serious ageing population.By using the actuarial model of revenue and expenditure of social pooling pension of urban employees, the financial gap and accumulated surplus of2011 to2050were forecasted. Result shows that the gap starts to emerge in2025, expanding with time goes on, and the gap in2050accounts for5%of GDP of2011. The accumulated surplus is indebted since2032, and the liabilities increases rapidly annually, which the liabilities in2050accounts for48%of GDP of2011.Analysis demonstrates that the transitional cost is the main factor causing the gap of social pooling pension of urban employees in2025-2034and the ageing population becomes the main reason after2035.Postponing the retirement age and transferring state-owned shares into the social insurance fund were proposed to relieve the pressure of government result from pension gap. The concrete implementation scheme includes that raise men’s retirement age to65and women’s retirement age to62and transfer55%of state-owned shares into the social insurance fund gradually. Two measures can both effectively postpone the liabilities emerging, but can-not eliminate the threat. If the two measures can both be implemented, the liabilities will not emerge before2050, which means can basically realize the sustainability of the social security system.