An Empirical Study On The Conduction Mechanism Of Influence Factors On The Chinese Import And Export Volume

In the past thirty years, the contribution of the import and export to Chinese economic development attract worldwide attention. However, in the recent years, due to the financial crisis, foreign trade has become complicated which increase the demand of more detailed research on the transmission mechanism of the import and export. On this topic, domestic and foreign scholars have done very fruitful work. The former mainly using VAR model,cointegration test and error correction model method in combination with the theory, to research the influence factors on the import and export of the long-term equilibrium and short-term dynamic change. But there are also some problems, for example, old data, less variables the use of single model.This paper select the national import and export volume, the real effective exchange rate, the international crude oil prices, foreign direct investment, domestic industrial added value, MO, cpi, U.S. personal income levels of monthly data from January2002to December2012, using Eviews6.0, Microfit and ECVaR software to establish VAR model, cointegration, ARDL model with the impulse response function, VEC, M-TAR to study the short-term trends. In the last the paper compares each model according to the VaR/CVaR value. Researching mechanisms and effects of each factor to Chinese foreign trade, the paper gives the suggestions on RMB exchange rate policy, monetary policy and domestic industrial upgrading and restructuring based on research findingsThe results show that, the appreciation of the RMB has no negative impact on the import and export volume; the supply of money in circulation can, to a certain extent, stimulate the foreign trade in the short term, but will inhibit the import and export volume growth in the long run. Influence of international market demand changes import volume more significantly. The domestic monetary policy should make full investigations to keep up with market changes. Industry and gradually improve the technical content and added value of products to improve the ability to withstand the global economic crisis.