At The Present Stage Of Agricultural Commodities Prices Volatility

At present, our country agricultural product price fluctuations is very big. Agricultural prices volatile, not just for the normal agricultural production and people life caused huge impact, but also for national macroscopic overall price levels stable that normal economic operation has had a negative impact. For this kind of situation, and based on the lessons learned on the basis of predecessors’research results through the establishment of econometric model and the introduction of currency fluctuations in the model elements of the deep reason of price fluctuation of agricultural products. This paper USES single whole test, cointegration test, granger causality test and other econometric way affecting our country cotton, soybeans, wheat, corn and other agricultural commodities price volatility factor has carried on the empirical analysis. After analysis found that the money supply M2is the granger cause of the change of the prices for agricultural products in China. The empirical results of this paper is a deep theoretical analysis, put forward the prices of financial decision theory, this paper points out that since the collapse of the bretton woods institutions since1978, the dollar is no longer with gold as anchor, global exchange rate also entered the period of free floating, the currency issue is no longer, subject to the limit of the precious metal increase rigidity, but the demand according to the regulation of national economy, therefore have appeared in the large fluctuation of monetary supply, which in turn influence the stability of the global price system, in addition to the financial derivatives such as futures and options of international commodity represented global pricing. Therefore, the present stage within the scope of the global monetary and financial factors especially the price of the commodity of market price fluctuations and plays a more and more significant role. And the empirical analysis on paper as a result, in the last part of this paper put forward by using the currency financial means to ease monetary and financial factors form of the disorder of agricultural commodities prices don’t fluctuate. At this stage the focus is on speed up the development of capital market, especially the domestic futures market, in a way that is market-oriented response to monetary and financial factors that affect agricultural prices has become increasingly obvious.