| In recent years, more and more scholars begin to pay close attention to the establishment of the exchange rate model. They analyze the impact of macroeconomic variables for exchange rate. This model is established to predict currency movements of exchange rateThe earliest exchange rate determination models include monetary aggregates, the rate of inflation and other economic variables. But as research continues, more and more scholars found that the oil price volatility is an important factors affecting exchange rate volatility.After the industrial revolution, oil and other commodities energy resources gradually developed into an important foundation for macroeconomic, nowadays oil price has very important influence on the trend of world economy. Considering the volatility of income, the account balance, savings and other macroeconomic variables have a significant impact caused by the fluctuations of exchange rate, the study of oil price and exchange rate correlation is a new direction of the research, has the very vital significance.On the basis of summarizing the predecessors’ research results, this paper includes the price of oil in the exchange rate determination models, study the influence of world oil prices on the RMB exchange rate.The second part of this article includes commodity and financial property of oil. Oil price is more than a commodity price index; the change of oil price is very significant influence on economy. After that, this article studies the history of the world oil price fluctuation and the characteristics of world oil prices and then analyzes the supply and demand of world oil market, the dollar prices and the impact of unexpected events on the price of oil. The third part of this article use normative analysis and empirical analysis in the model of the exchange rate determination by Krugman, demonstrates the price of oil can be very significant influenced by the exchange rate and studied transmission mechanism of oil price to the exchange rate.The fourth part of the article uses empirical method to study the world oil price fluctuation of RMB exchange rate. This paper collected the data of RMB exchange rate, world oil prices, industrial added value, and money supply from1981to2013. Based on the econometric vector autoregressive model and impulse response function of world oil prices and the RMB exchange rate, this paper analyzes the trend of the world’s oil price and exchange rate linkage relations before and after reform of RMB exchange rate the change. Through research, this article confirmed the world oil price fluctuation has a significant influence of RMB exchange rate and the impulse response function of the exchange rate before and after the reform of RMB exchange rate has obvious different. After the reform of RMB exchange rate, oil price shocks more profound impact on the RMB exchange rate.Along with the deepening of internationalization, sharp fluctuations in world oil prices and the distortion of the domestic oil market has brought China’s economic instability. In order to ensure the smooth development of China’s economy, the domestic oil market should be more open and transparent in order to make the domestic oil market be in line with the world oil market so that the market can adjust the allocation of resources of our country’s oil market. The Chinese government should pay more attention to improve the domestic market of oil pricing mechanism, promote the development of the domestic oil market. At the same time, our country should also establish a sound strategic oil reserves to offset the negative expectations of the world oil market volatility, restrain the significant impact of the oil price shocks and guarantee the healthy and stable development of economy in our country. |
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