The Analysis On The Controls Of The House Prices Under The Background Of Exchange Rate Policy And Monetary Policy

For a long time,high housing prices has been a problem for the government and the influence of people’s livelihood, the regulation of prices has become the main topic of the national strategic level. While most research control on prices is mainly from the perspective of monetary policy, prone to deficiency of the theory. Therefore, this paper presents a new research method, adding another important influencing factors that exchange rate policy and the combination of the supply of money and interest to jointly analyze the impact on the real estate price.This paper first introduces the macro policy formation and corresponding high prices in recent years the country has issued, next introduces the monetary policy and exchange rate policy are how to control real estate price trend. The third chapter focuses on the relationship between the monetary policy and exchange rate policy, citing the interest rate parity theory and portfolio analysis to analyze the correlation between the two, and from Meade conflict and Ding Bogen principle to analyze the conflict between the two, and is conducive to better from the theoretical level to explain the impact on prices.The fourth chapter and the fifth chapter is the core of this paper, from the perspective of empirical analysis of city price index and money supply (M2) the relationship between the real exchange rate of RMB, and personal loans interest rates, combined with the data processing software of stata. Based on the vector auto regression model (Var) for ADF test and Johansen cointegration test, we get the price of real estate, mortgage interest rates, there is a long-term stable cointegration relationship between money supply and the exchange rate of RMB four, which is a long-term equilibrium relationship. And the model obtained thecointegration equation by vector error correction, and found that there was a positive correlation between money supply and prices from, there is obvious negative correlation between mortgage rates and house prices. Finally, this paper establishes the SVAR model,the impulse response graphs respectively to get the mutual impact effect of property prices,exchange rates, mortgage interest rates, money supply as the four volume of the other threevariables.This paper establishes the model of and empirical analysis, this paper from the view of models get the impact of exchange rate, monetary supply on prices is positive, the influence of the mortgage interest rate is negative. But the impulse response graphs from short and long term effects and persistent angle obtained with model is not consistent conclusion. This proposal should gradually establish an effective, robust, flexible exchange rate mechanism, maintain the stability of the renminbi, and conducive to price stability. Finally this paper gives advices to perfect the real estate market demand from the supply perspective.