Research Of Monetary Policy Effectiveness Based On Household Debt And Nations’ Consuming Behavior

with our country economy development and the related system reform, in theuncertain future income and health care, pension, housing and other large rigid spendingincreased, under the condition of our country residents family keeps spending patterns ofthe "high savings, low consumption, less inter-temporal consumption pattern is used torealize the immediate consumption, the economic growth of our country, it is very bad.Especially after the1997Asian financial crisis, our country suddenly faced with thephenomenon of insufficient consumption, in this case, in order to expand domesticdemand, economic growth, countries have adopted the loose monetary policy to stimulateconsumption, developed a series of economic measures, including the development ofhousehold borrowing. But with the rapid development of China’s household debt,consumption rate is still low in our country, and did not appear the phenomenon ofascension. Household debt balance, up from17.2billion yuan in1997to2012in10.4trillion, however, consumption rate decreased from43%in1997to32%in2012, andalmost straight downward trend in these16years, thus affecting the effectiveness ofmonetary policy. So from household borrowing behavior and consumer behavior to themicroscopic point of view of its influence on the effectiveness of monetary policymechanism is the research significance.Modern household borrowing behavior is an important economic activityphenomenon. Family as the basic cell of society, the ultimate effect of monetary policyimplementation or will be reflected in the body of the microscopic behavior. In this studythe issue, reflecting the effectiveness of monetary policy adopted in the central bank’smonetary policy through the interest rate channel and the credit channel transmissionmechanism of conduction through the impact on household debt thereby affectingconsumption, finally reaching impact on economic growth.Firstly, the classical monetary theory and the theory of consumer-related policies athome and abroad were reviewed effectiveness and comprehensive analysis of theconnotation and characteristics of household borrowing behavior analysis, which includesthe meaning of household debt, the impact of macro and micro factors that householddebt, as well as characteristic feature of the total household debt, and with the structureof consumption, income between analysis; secondly, in the first three parts of thetheoretical basis of the analysis of monetary policy and household borrowing, consumer behavior analysis of the impact mechanism. Including the interest rate channel ofmonetary policy transmission, credit channel two channels, two mechanisms by whichanalyzes the impact on the family channel borrowing brought. In addition to analysis ofhousehold borrowing and monetary policy mechanism, but also on the impact of themonetary policy transmission mechanism analysis of both the size of the amount ofresidents from consumption and consumer behavior characteristics, drawn two of itsfeatures are hindered transmission of monetary policy; fifth part is An Empirical Study ofChinese household consumption behavior lending and monetary policy. Includingvariable selection, data sources and feature analysis, descriptive statistics for eachvariable, with unit root, cointegration test, VAR models for empirical analysis, found anincrease in the implementation of monetary policy to some extent, although the promotionof China’s household debt but because of the structure of household debt is not directlypromote China ’s consumption, coupled with China’s consumer characteristics impede thetransmission of monetary policy, and therefore the effect of monetary policy to promoteeconomic growth in household debt is not very clear through; last part is based on policyrecommendations put forward a series of meaningful part of the first few issues involvedin the analysis.