Research On The Impact Of Household Debt On Household Consumption In China

Under the background of greater downward pressure on global economic development,insufficient investment demand,and intensified trade frictions,China has entered an important transition stage of the new normal of economic development,and the role of consumption in driving the economy has been fully promoted to the national strategic level.Household debt,as an important channel to reduce household mobility constraints and promote household consumption growth and consumption structure upgrade,has developed rapidly and played a significant role under the guidance of relevant national policies.However,with the increasing wealth of household consumer financial products,the scale of household debt has gradually expanded,and household debt has led to an increase in the probability of systemic financial risks.How to find a balance between "consumption promotion" and "risk prevention" will be the focus of the next development of household debt.This article fully draws on relevant domestic and foreign research and is based on the reality that Chinese consumption's high contribution to the economy and high household debt may trigger systemic financial risks.It studies the relationship between China's household debt and household consumption from three aspects:theoretical analysis,status analysis,and empirical analysis.In the theoretical analysis,the article expounds the liquidity constraint theory,the preventive savings hypothesis,the financial accelerator theory,and the debt deflation theory.Based on this,it analyzes the mechanism of household debt affecting household consumption.In the current situation analysis,the article starts from the four perspectives of household debt scale,debt structure,debt burden and debt consumption comparative analysis,and finds that China's household debt growth rate is fast,the structure is unreasonable,the debt burden is heavy,and the growth is faster than consumption.In the empirical analysis,the article use the 2017 China Household Finance Survey and Research Center(CHFS2017)to research the impact of household debt on household consumption from multi-level and multi-angle.First,in the empirical analysis of whether household debt can promote household consumption,it is found that the growth rate of consumption of households with debt is significantly higher than thatof households without debt.Second,it is empirically found that total household debt has a significant promotion effect on total household consumption,durable goods consumption and non-durable goods consumption.Third,the empirical research on the debt structure found that housing debt will significantly promote durable goods consumption,but it has not been able to significantly promote the growth of non-durable goods consumption and total consumption;Non-housing debt has a significant promotion effect on total household consumption,durable goods consumption and non-durable goods consumption.Fourth,it is found from the degree of debt that when the household asset-liability ratio is less than 50%,the household debt has a significant promotion effect on household consumption.When the household asset-liability ratio is greater than 50%,household debt has a crowding-out effect on total household consumption and household non-durable goods consumption,but it failed the significance test.Based on the research conclusions,the article makes the following recommendations from the household sector,financial institution and government :Guide households to reasonable debts.Improve the efficiency of financial resource allocation.Give play to policy incentives and guidance.