Supply Chain Risk Assessment Method Based On Fault Tree Analysis

With the rapid development of economic and social，the dynamic change of externalenvironment and internal operation of supply chain become more intense. Along with theincrease of uncertainty factors in supply chain, the delay and breakdown of supply chaincaused by the supply chain risk occurred frequently. Therefore, strengthen the research ofsupply chain risk identification and evaluation is related to can be better prevent andcontrol the supply chain risk, and it is the key to guarantee the normal operation of supplychain. The study has great theoretical significance and practical value.On the basis of a large number of domestic and international researches, the paperabsorbs rich research achievements of home and abroad. It is the integrated use of supplychain management, risk management and other disciplines theory and newsboy model,analytic network process, fault tree analysis and other quantitative techniques, usingtheory analysis and example analysis, in order to conduct a study on supply chain riskidentification and evaluation. The main contents are as follows:First of all, the paper uses of supply chain operations reference model to identifyingsupply chain risks and gets a more comprehensive supply chain risks identified results. Onthis basis, the paper introduces the fault tree analysis method and builds the supply chainrisk assessment model based on it. At the same time, by applying the newsboy modelweighing the costs and benefits of supply chain risk to get a more reasonable probabilityof bottom event. Second, it introduces weights into the fault tree model and uses the ANPto determine relative weights between events, it can better reflect the differences of supplychain managers’ sensitivity and demand about different risk, the weights truly reflects theactual situation. In the end, by improving the quantitative analysis of the fault tree analysis,the paper gets a more reasonable supply chain risk probability and the degree of theimportance of each risk. Through use the example simulation to analysis the wholeprocess of risk assessment and explain the real meaning of the parameters of the modelresults, the paper provides foundations for supply chain managers to analysis risks.