Study On The Assessment Of The Risk Of The Ro/ro Passenger Vessels In Bohai Bay

In the course of the development of the research of risk assessment theory, researchers put forward many new assessment methods which were applied in the practice. Shipping risk can easily occur because of the complexity of shipping process and the variety of changeable factors. The assessment of shipping risk employing appropriate method makes great sence not only for the stable operation of shipping company, but also for the security of persons and properties on board and reducing the pollution to the ocean environment.In the thesis, the dynamic state of the study on the concept of risk, risk management process and risk assessment models are reviewed. The advantage and disadvantage of various kinds of risk assessment models are also analyzed, from which we know that the chart theory model, artificial intelligence model and the coupling of different models are the development trend of risk assessment model.A total analysis method of shipping risk is put forward after the brief introduce of the risk of shipping company, and the shipping risk is systematically analyzed. The fault tree analysis(FTA) method is employed to the shipping risk analysis, together with a demonstration analysis on the risk of the ro/ro passenger vessels in Bohai bay. The system risk is analyzed based on the minimum cut sets which are solved using the Semanderes algorithm; the calculation of the probability of the top event is based on the inclusive-exclusive theorem; and the probability importance degree and key importance degree are also educed. According to the analysis, the vehicle factor and human factor have the strongest impact on the shipping safety, and the terrible weather and sea condition are the main objective factors putting ro/ro passenger vessels at risk.The index system of shipping risk assessment and the risk grade and its partition standard are put forward, which are premises and basis to assess the shipping risk.