Local Government Debt Risk In City D Of Heilongjiang Province

At present, the local government debt exists some problems: for example,the regulatory is not standard, the regulation is not in place, the industrydebt-paying ability is weak, the evaluation mechanism and preventionmechanism is lack and so on. There are lots of potential risks. This article takescity D as an example of three line city to study government debt risk level.First of all, this article introduces local government debt situation in city D,explains its risk, including repayment risk,debt risk influence the governmentprestige, social stability, macroeconomic and financial risks, then analyzes theformation of historical and realistic reasons deeply.Then, calculates the local government debt scale of City D in "12thFive-Year Plan", which is including the effect of stock debt from "eleven five"period and new debt in "twelve five" period. The former uses the PMT functionof EXCEL, to calculate and sum the principle and interest. The latter is thereduction by local government investment needs and local governmentinvestment capacity. It tests local government debt pressure through scenarioassumed for City D: debt risk of different economic growth from the perspective,debt risk under different central and local expenditure responsibility pattern, anddebt risk under different market and government public investment boundary, inorder to calculate local government debt risk of City D.Finally, compare the risk index changes of testing debt ratio, debt ratio andrefinancing rate, come to the conclusion: local government debt scale of City Din "twelve five" period is overall controlled, but some indicators display debtpressure continues increasing, the situation is not optimistic. It is necessary touse varies of methods in order to ease the local government debt pressure, suchas maintaining proper economic growth, downward shifting part of financialresources, market participation in public investment in the field of investmentand financing. Accordingly, put forward relevant countermeasures andsuggestions for risk prevention.