| Since1998, after the housing distribution system reform of our country real estatemarket with the rapid development, the real estate industry as the pillar of the nationaleconomy, to a significant role in promoting economic growth. The development of the realestate industry of our country facing the broad prospects and good opportunity, at the sametime, the real estate industry in the development process also reflects some characteristics:on the one hand, the real estate market gradually tend to be more healthy and rational. Onthe other hand, it can be seen that the current government policy on the influence of the realestate market is very strong. From2005to2013, a series of macro-control policies ofGovernment on real estate industry development, is not to suppress or inhibit thedevelopment of the real estate industry, on the contrary, countries are completely in order toguide and support the real estate industry better, healthy development.This paper uses the combination of theoretical analysis and empirical analysismethod to study the interest rate changes affect GuoFang boom index, and analyzes theinterest rate changes affect GuoFang boom classification index, to study the influence ofthe interest rate on the real estate industry development, and then to the nationalmacroeconomic regulation and control policy of the interest rate policy put forwardrelevant opinions, make the real estate industry sustainable development has a certainpractical significance.First, the theoretical analysis part, through the analysis of interest rate changes on thereal estate supply and demand two related main body, the influence of the qualitativeanalysis of the interest rate changes on GuoFang sentiment has the influence, and therelationship between them is relatively complex. Secondly, in the empirical analysis part,first use the Granger causality test, stationarity test and cointegration test methods underVAR model to analyze the main factors of the GuoFang climate index like the interest rate,the consumer price index, GDP, money supply, land acquisition price, the influence of thesevariables are influential to GuoFang boom index, only the influence degree is different. Oneof the biggest influence on GuoFang boom index was the consumer price index, the secondis the interest rate, is the money supply once again, the last is the gross domestic product(GDP) and the purchase price of land. Thus can get interest rates change on GuoFang sentiment is have a significant impact. One of the biggest impact on the development ofreal estate investment is a three to five-year lending rates. The capital source is the biggestimpact of the one-year lending rate this year. The greatest influence on the landdevelopment area is more than five years period lending rates. The greatest influence on thecommercial housing vacancy area is more than five years period lending rates. The largestimpact on housing construction area is more than five years in lending rates. The greatestinfluence on commercial housing sales price is one-year lending rate. So, if we want toimprove GuoFang sentiment classification index can adjust the corresponding interest rates.In general, the biggest influence on GuoFang boom index is more than five years in lendingrates, the long-term interest rates. |
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