Research On The Climate Index System Of Road Freight Transportation

As the road transportation is more and more important within the integrated transportsystem, the transport demand and the service quality are increasing continuously. On the otherhand, road transportation industry has significant impact on the life and production of thepeople increasingly.“See the traffic from out of the traffic”. It has become increasinglyimportant to analyze the relationship between the national economy and the transport industry.However, there are still many problems in the economic operation analysis of roadtransportation. The current rules and regulations of transport industry are not enough to ensurethe industry statistics and economic operation analysis. Less dynamic indicators andcomprehensive index for economic analysis, poor operability of index, and not fully to meetindustry analysis and decision-making are existing problems. The current conditions have ledto the economic analysis reflects the information single, not deep enough, poor timeliness,less quantitative analysis, ineffective monitoring and forecasting problems.The Climate index System of road transportation is from the economy analysis system ofthe road transportation. The industry analysis of road freight is an important part of roadtransportation economic. The boom of road freight has an important close contact withmacroeconomic economy and major industry conditions. To prepare the climate index of roadfreight can comprehensively reflect the production and cost of road freight, the boom oftransport enterprises and other information. It is more comprehensive reflection for thebooming condition of road freight market. The climate index of freight with timely anddynamic characteristics can provide the required information for the market main parts. Andto carry out the economic analysis using the climate index of freight also can find thefluctuations regular of freight market, and the main fluctuations factors. Virtually, thepreparation and analysis the climate index system of freight improve and deepen theeconomic analysis systems of road transportation.This paper elaborates the theory on the climate index system of road freight, gives thedefinition of the climate index of freight and establishes the climate index system of roadfreight and the booming indicators system. Meanwhile, the economic theory of the boomingindicators of road freight climate has been expounded. It has been proposed that the internal relationship between the climate index of road freight transport and macro-economic climate.The information value on the climate index system of road freight is discussed.The volume and turnover of road freight as the reference indicator, the climate indicatorgroup has been determined by the K-L information models and graphic correlation method.Then the scoring system of the climate indicator group has been established according to theevaluation criteria of climate indicator and the given weight of each booming indicator.Finally, it has been prepared the Composite Index and Diffusion Index system of road freighttransport using the classic theory of economic index from U.S.Through the economic analysis to the climate index fluctuations of road freight, thestudy found the wave period and the fluctuations in regularity. The model named ARIMAabout the climate index of road freight and GDP growth proved the climate index fluctuationsof road freight always appears before the macroeconomic volatility. The inner mechanism ofclimate index of road freight as a leading indicator has been studied，inherent relationsbetween climate index of road freight and macroeconomic have been proved.Using the cost function theory from western economics to analyze the road freight ratesand fuel costs impact on the road profits, it was found that the profits level of road freighttransport are declining in recent years. The VAR models established the relationship betweenthe climate index of road freight and the National Real Estate index, the broad money supplygrowth M2and the equipment manufacturing booming index respectively. The empiricalstudies have found the long-run equilibrium relationship between the four variables. In shortterm the estate impact on the road freight transport most significantly, and in long term theequipment manufacturing industry has the most profound impact on the road freight transport.The expansionary monetary policy can stimulating growth in climate index of road freight inthe short term, but it could negatively affect the climate index of road freight in the long term,similarly the real estate. As one of the real economy, manufacturing always has positive effecton the climate index of road freight. Because it has a close relationship with other industries,manufacturing has the most profound impact on the road freight transport.In order to ensure the formation and continuously updated of the climate index system ofroad freight, it is crucial to establish the sector gurantee for statistical system of the roadtransportation, the gurantee mechanism of indicators system, and the gurantee mechanism of data acquisition.The thesis can perfect the establishment of the climate index of complete roadtransportation system, promote the development of economic analysis of road transportation,and enhance the scientific management for road transportation industry. The study is of greatsignificance for the theory and practice.