| In the current economic situation, the characteristics of real estate investment is large amount, high risk, long investment cycle. National and local governments introduced a number of policies to real estate industry, to strengthen the regulation, because of unpredictability, variability of real estate investment environment, the uncertainty of many factors make real estate investment decision very difficult. This requires real estate investment decision-making method more scientific, flexible and reasonable, so that if can provide more accurate basis for real estate investment. The objective of this thesis is to put forward a new real option calculation of the real estate investment strategies based on a cloud model and triangular number.Firstly, on the basis of study of domestic and foreign real option theory proposed in this paper, the research has given the offline and insight to the general methods and theories of investment decision of real estate. If summarizes the real option theory and compares the advantages in the field of real option in real estate investment decision-making method. Finally, it concludes the research significance.Secondly, because it is impractical to use present real option calculation to solve problem, this research based on the random, fuzzy and uncertain feature of expected cash flows payoff, costs and volatility, proposes a new pricing approach by taking advantage of a cloud model and triangular number to transform the first two impact factors into two clouds. It uses triangular number to describe expected cash flows volatility.Finally, a example is presented to validate the feasibility of this method. The cloud model presents the real option value, combined with the characteristics of cloud model. The results are divided into four intervals, namely the backbone range, elements range, basic peripheral element range and the weak peripheral elements range. It calculates the corresponding range, and analyzes the corresponding application range. It farther undertakes comparative analysis to the real option value of evaluators’ evaluation results and cloud model results. The evaluators’ evaluation results are included in the key elements of the cloud model results range within the scope of cloud model backbone element interval. It has certain fuzziness, meanwhile it also has certain accuracy. After studied different evaluators number influence on evaluation results, this research found, for the basic elements of interval number that is not very big, the number of experts has a low influence. For the backbone elements interval, the range of each other to determine with high contact ratio. In particular, the more number the evaluator has, the more accurate the result is. This demonstrates that backbone element interval that are needed to evaluate the results of cloud model, the more sample data that are, the more accurate. Also, sensitivity to the expected present value of cash flow volatility are analyzed, and get the volatility in the range of 0 to 0.1 option value hardly changes over volatility; In the range of 0.1 to 0.8 option value and volatility changes are positively to change. |
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