Studies On How Do China’s Commercial Estate Credit Affect Commercial Housing Supply

From the phenomenon of property hoarding in recently years, we know that the supply of commercial housing contains nominal supply and effective supply. The nominal supply of commercial housing represents the total housing completions within a specific period. Effective supply is such a supply that economic agents pursue the utility maximization according to their budget constraints and market information. From the supply point of view, the effectiveness of the real estate market supply refers to the supply to meet the demand for the purchase of supplies on the market. For some reason, the vacant houses are not effective supply. Why did not the developers translate nominal supply into effective supply in market totally? By analyzing the relationship between nominal supply and effective supply, we found that the property hoarding behavior of real estate developers caused the effective supply less than the nominal supply.The part that not translates into the effective supply reflects the amount of property hoarding by developers. During the period of property hoarding, developers still have to pay the costs, especially the price of money. So why did the developers choose property hoarding instead of accelerating the capital turnover? This article concluded that, the motivation of property hoarding is the great benefit. There must exist some certain prerequisites, namely the developers’expected earnings caused by rising prices will be greater than the price of money. Thus, as a developer for pursuing high profits, it’s would be profitable to keep sellers on this condition. Therefore, based on the research question in this paper, the paper is divided into two parts. First, this article analyzed the impact on commodity housing nominal supply by commercial banks real estate credit through nominal supply model. Second, from the developer’s property hoarding phenomenon of view, this article explored the impact of property hoarding phenomenon to the formation of effective supply through the establishment of the amount of property hoarding model. The conclusions provided some theoretical proposals to increase the effective supply.This article selected the panel data of 31provinces and cities from 2000 to 2013 to establish the commercial housing nominal supply model and from 2007 to 2012 to establish the property hoarding model. So considering the significant factors such as the cost,price and expectations, this article selected the one-year real interest rates and real estate loans as proxy variables, and other related variables that affect housing supply as control variables to establish panel data model. The estimation results of the model shows that the commercial bank real estate credit can increase the commercial housing market nominal supply as a strong financial backing. However, because the real estate credit is not owned fund, the loan costs are relatively low comparing with the high prices. As a result, excessive credit supports will produce the phenomenon of property hoarding easily, leading to the effective supply less than the nominal supply. So, how to control the cost of loans reasonably while increasing the real estate loans is what we thought. The questions above are the direction of macro-control policies worked for the real estate in the future. This article provides a new direction to increase the effective supply of commercial housing while not reducing the amount of nominal supply.