Herders’ Decision Behavior Under Uncertainty In Different Grassland Zones In Inner Mongolia

The study of decision-making under uncertainty has boomed in the 1950s, and developed well since then. Grassland ecosystem is a naturally economically and socially ecological system, and in different types of grassland areas herders’ production not only has obvious regionally characteristics, but also has complex production process under uncertainty. That the natural uncertainty caused by fluctuant rainfall is the main factor affecting herders’ production and management decisions and livestock development. Therefore, to understand and reveal herders’ decision-making behavior principles under uncertainty is an important basis for achieving effective grassland management.The paper was divided into six parts. The first part is the introduction, including the background, significance, aims, contents and key scientific questions to be solved and technical routes of research. The second part reviewed the history of the relevant theory, such as prospect theory. Meanwhile, herders’decision-making behavior was also described. The third part included the details of research areas, methods and data sources.The fourth part analyzed the herders’ livestock-grass balance decisions yearly basis, mainly including the characteristics analysis of meteorological data, the changes of stocking rates and yearly basis in different types of grassland areas. The fifth part analyzed herders’decision-making behavior based on years and prospect theory. The prospect model was developed and some cases were given. The summary and some policies suggestions were given in the last part.The results showed that herders’production decisions have been always changing and looking for the optimal production way to adapt environmental changes and make better livelihoods. Herders’production went on relatively steadily and there was a three to five period. The yearly judgments were mainly based on the present and past practical years. The empirical studies showed that herders always carried out the game between profits and utility. The results showed that cumulative prospect utilities were between upper and average years in Xinbaerhu left banner and Xilinhot, while between lower and average years in Sunite right banner. The cumulative profits were the same with the cumulative prospect utilities. Herders were characterized by bounded rationality when making decisions based yearly judgment and didn’t choose the maximum utility or profits and those choices were steady in some periods; but the reference standards were different and affected by some other factors in different grassland areas.Finally, some suggestions were given. Firstly, the research of herders’ production systems should be paid more attention and the rangeland management decision support system be popularized. Secondly, the standard of livestock-grass balance should be scientifically developed and implemented. Thirdly, grassland policy research and demonstrations should be strengthened.