Research On Risk Propagation And Control In Automotive Supply Chain

As the development of globalization, the complexity of supply chain becomes more complex; and factors of supply chain operating environment, such as the uncertainty, make the supply chain more susceptible to unexpected risks. As the large number of nodes enterprises and close business connection between the nodes enterprises, the automotive supply chain becomes one of the most complex supply chain. Global purchasing strategy, versatility of parts and other factors make the automotive supply chain more vulnerable and face more risks. Therefore, a study on risk of automotive supply chain is presented in this paper, which aims to study the propagation mechanism of risk as well as the influence of various parameters on the automotive supply chain risk transmission. According to the characteristics of the transmission mechanism of automotive supply chain risk, risk control measures are presented in the paper, which provides certain reference value for the study of the automotive supply chain risk. This paper studies the following aspects:1. Through the analysis of the existing internal and overseas research and the results of latest theoretical research, the paper summarizes the existing research, identifies the main risk factors for the presence of the automotive supply chain, and studies the control theory.2. By studying the spread of disease theory and combining with the characteristics of automotive supply chain risk propagation, the paper builds the improved SIR model. According to the existing literature, the paper redefines the infection rate and recovery rate and gives the quantification formula.3. Through the research of evidence theory, the paper improves the method of evidence to solve the multi-source risk propagation.The research shows that:the risk propagation of automotive supply chain is related to node degree, the type of risk, timing risk outbreak, the number of infected nodes enterprises and so on. Such as:different risk types make the infection rate and recovery rates different and make effect on the range of risk. The conclusion is that:when the core enterprises become immune nodes, the spread of risk in automotive supply chain can be effectively controlled. Thus, enhancing the immune ability of the core node enterprise, can reduce the effect of risk propagation. According to the risk propagation mechanism of the automotive supply chain, the principle of automotive supply chain risk control is presented in this paper, such as integral, dynamic. According to the characteristics of automotive supply chain risk, this paper is presented measures such as purchasing risk, strategy and culture of risk of the various stages. And the overall risk control measures of the automotive supply chain is also presented in this paper.