Research On Decision-Making Model Of The Concession Period For Public Utility BOT Project

Public utilities have close connections with commercial production and the public daily life.It is an important foundation for the development of the national economy.With the rapid increase in demand for public utilities,the governments as a traditional supplier have been unable to afford the finance.The lack of funds restricts the development of public utilities.The emergence of BOT mode makes private capitals participate in the investment of public utilities.To a great extent,it solves the problem of lack of funds for public utilities construction,improves the supply of public utilities,and also has been widely accepted and applied in many countries.Concession period is an important factor in the BOT mode,which determines the distribution of interests between the government and project company,and affects the success of the project.In the early stage of a project,according to the different decision of the government and the project company,establish scientific and reasonable concession period determining models in consideration of key factors affecting concession period;in the process of project operation,according to the actual situation changes,establish adjustment models of concession period for public utility projects which is essential.In order to solve this problem,firstly,this thesis analyses the operation and income characteristics of public utility BOT projects.Public utility BOT projects can be divided into pure commercial and quasi commercial projects.Pure commercial projects have stable operating income and good profitability.They can be regulated through the market.Although the quasi commercial projects have a fee mechanism,they have the nature of public welfare and need the subsidy of the government.This two classifications of public utility BOT projects are the main object and basis of the thesis.Second,based on the game theory,by mathematical modeling,construct game decision-making models of concession period with the principles maximizing the social benefits of government and its own economic benefits of project company,and solve the optimal solution.The optimal solution of concession period is based on the forecast demand,supply and cost before the project construction.Because of the limitations of the fixed concession period,the BOT projects need to adjust the concession period.By The analyses method of the mathematical model and graphics,the adjusting model concerning the concession period and price for pure commercial project is constructed when the demand curve shifts left or right.The adjusting model concerning the concession period and state subsidies for quasi commercial project is constructed when the actual supply increases or decreases.In order to avoid the excess returns or lower than the expected returns of the project company,this thesis discusses a single concession period adjustment,a single adjustment price/subsidy,and a decision making scheme of charging price/subsidy and concession period linkage adjustment.Finally,combined with specific project cases,the decision models of concession period and the adjustment models under different conditions are discussed respectively,which provides ideas and reference for the government and the project company on the concession period of public utility projects.