Research On The Influence Factor Of The Market Intreste Rates In The Process Of Interest Rates Marketization In China

Market interest rate is the real reflection of the cost of borrowing funds market,it is determined by the supply and demand on the monetary market and affected by the changes of monetary market supply and demand change frequently. Market interest rates generally refer to LIBOR (London interbank offered rate)、the federal funds rate in the United States, and China also has the interbank lending market, the interest rate (SHIBOR) is the market rate. In 1996 China liberalised interbank lending rates, a solid step to the market interest rates. Starting in January 2007, and published in Shanghai interbank lending rates, namely SHIBOR, marks China’s money market benchmark interest rate to foster work official start, after years of development, SHIBOR has established the position of monetary market benchmark interest rate, and fully reflects the market capital supply and demand. SHIBOR as market interest rates, is bound to be affected by macroeconomic factors, and the extent of the impact and determines the future possible direction, which to a certain extent, can affect the real economy of investment yield; In addition, SHIBOR as the benchmark interest rate, is the reference of central bank interest rate adjustment. Therefore, the study of the influence factors of market interest rates, can be not only reasonable projections for the future trend of interest rate changes, and the enterprise can also be obtained by predicting the direction it expected yield and cash flow of the discount rate. For the central bank interest rate policy formulation as well as the enterprise investment decision choices is of great significance.This paper is extended to explore SHIBOR (one week) from January 2007 to June 2013, on the basis of research achievements about market interest rates at home and abroad, including the money supply, the Shanghai composite index, government spending, international interest rates and other factors, the twelve macroeconomic variables for analysis. On the basis of the principle of uniqueness and the premise of effective variables through the granger causality tests, the paper obtained a short and long term equilibrium relationship in the way of eliminating variables gradually, namely the co-integration equation and error correction equation; At last, we got the conclusion of each variable in the extent and duration by impulse response and variance decomposition equations.The main conclusions of this paper is as follows:(1) in the long run, price index, international interest rate, the purchasing managers’ index, the change of government spending will lead to changes in interest rates in the same direction, the benchmark Shanghai composite index and changes in the money supply will lead to reverse fluctuations in interest rates. Among them, the price index, the government fiscal spending as well as the purchasing managers’ index for the elasticity of the interest rate is greater than 1.(2) in the short term, price index, interest rate, the purchasing managers’ index, international interest rate changes with the change of government spending is the same, the benchmark Shanghai composite index and the change of the money supply will lead to reverse fluctuations in interest rates. Interest rate itself will also affect its direction in the same way, error correction played a reverse correction function.