| With the recent years, China's economy into the "new normal", on the one hand the economy from high-speed growth to high-speed growth, the economic downturn for the role of steel demand is gradually weakened, steel prices also suffered a cliff down; On the other hand, with the transformation of the economic development structure, it will resolve some industries with overcapacity and eliminate some low value-added industries. Some enterprises will be affected by the economic restructuring and upgrading and even bankruptcy, and the steel industry Business bear the brunt of the enterprise. With the introduction of the State Council on the realization of overcapacity in the steel industry to achieve the difficulties of the development of the development, "to the production capacity, to inventory, to leverage,cost reduction, fill short board" is the focus of China's economic work,and the steel industry is to heavy In the heavy The state clearly put forward to use five years to reduce crude steel production capacity of 100 million to 150 million tons, is the goal of iron and steel to resolve capacity. At the same time, the progress of steel production technology and the steady improvement of steel quality, to promote steel demand to multi-level, diversity, and even high-level development,and China's high value-added steel in this area there is no small gap.The iron and steel industry supports the development of the national economy and is an important symbol of the level of national economic development and comprehensive national strength. Iron and steel industry for the entire industrial chain play a pillar of the role, the upstream industry is related to coal, iron ore,transportation and other "bottleneck" industry, the downstream link car, home appliances, equipment industry, construction, machinery and other basic industries.Therefore, if the iron and steel industry and the development of related industries is not synchronized or too fast development, it will make the steel products from the upper and lower two aspects of the enormous pressure, on the one hand by the upstream upstream "bottleneck" industry constraints; the other hand, Industry and upstream and downstream industry development imbalance, will highlight the entire industry chain inconsistent contradictions, leading to iron and steel enterprises to bear the negative impact of excessive competition.Therefore, at this stage of economic development, explore the impact of steel prices. Based on the bivariate structure change model, this paper analyzes the trend of China's steel price by identifying the structural changes in China's steel price in the course of economic growth, and uses the sub-sample estimation method to analyze the structural transition intervals of steel prices to obtain The Corresponding Relationship between China's Steel Price and China's Economic Growth. At the same time based on the traditional econometric method of macroeconomic variables in China - manufacturing purchasing managers index PMI, above-scale industrial enterprises added value accumulated year on year IVA,fixed assets investment completion _ cumulative year-on-year growth FAI, currency and quasi-currency _ Growth rate M2, inter-bank interbank borrowing weighted average interest rate IOR, RMB yuan against the US dollar at the end of the exchange rate ER-the impact of steel prices analysis mechanism and empirical test,the use of impulse response and other macroeconomic variables on the impact of steel prices, And perfect the theoretical framework of China's industrial policy; and on this basis, for the iron and steel enterprises and the relevant government regulators given substantive recommendations. |
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