A Research About The Relationship Between The Shanghai Real Estate Investment And Economic Growth

Investment plays a powerful role in promoting on economic growth. So far, investment、consumption and net exports, “ the three carriage” of promoting the steady growth of our country economy, the domestic consumer market is still insufficient, net exports are often resistance to foreign markets serious, the largest proportion in promoting the economic is still the investment, the data from national bureau of statistics shows that the investment’s contribution to economic growth was 50.4% in 2012, and it still maintained a strong promoting effect on economic growth. Investment can be divided into current assets and fixed assets investment, but as for economic growth, the fixed assets investment play a decisive role, and real estate investment occupies an important position in the fixed assets investment. With the development of recent decades, the real estate industry has gradually become the pillar industry of economic development in Shanghai, with the development of real estate, real estate investment in fixed asset investment proportion is increasing day by day, more and more prominent phenomenon, house prices continue to rise, consumers cannot mortgage payments on time and some other issues also appear constantly, all those contain a huge financial risk, once appear one, the real estate market will bring great influence on economic growth. Due to the financial center of Shanghai in east China, once the economy appear problems in Shanghai, it will impact all country, so paying attention to and studying the relationship between real estate investment and economic growth has important theoretical and practical significance.This paper begins with the theoretical aspects, by collecting and organizing large amounts of data, we can get a detailed understanding on research status at home and abroad in the field of real estate and economic growth, mastering new academic trends of this field; Then we can describe the Shanghai real estate market present situation, the Shanghai real estate investment growth situation, analysis the source composition in detail; we chose the time-series data of the real estate investment and GDP in Shanghai statistical yearbook from 1998-2012, on the basis of using principal component analysis and the 3σ law of normal distribution, we can make evaluation of coordination of the real estate investment and economic growth in Shanghai, from the angle of the scale and growth speed of real estate investment to judge the degree of hotness or coldness of nearly ten years in Shanghai real estate investment; last mainly using some measurement methods,such as unit root test、co-integration analysis、granger causality test to do quantitative analysis on the relationship between the real estate investment and economic growth in Shanghai, the results show that between estate investment and economic growth, there is a co- integration relationship, that is to say, it has a long-term stable relationship, Shanghai’s real estate investment logarithm increases 1%, economic growth logarithmic will increase nearly 1.123%, thus infer the Shanghai real estate investment’s contributio n to the economic growth is very significant; But as you can see from the result of granger causality test, under more than half of the 62.95% probability level, the real estate investment as the granger cause to economic growth, suggest that the real estate industry develops as the main reason to economic growth,due to the huge linkage effect of the real estate industry, once the government or the bank made strict regulation or control policy on the real estate market, real estate market will appear crisis, it will be severely restricting development of other industry, and eventually lead to the whole regional economy recession. Finally, according to the above test results, the paper found some corresponding problems and put forward some advice to the regulation and control policy of real estate investment.