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China's Real Estate Prices Motivation And Empirical Analysis

Posted on:2011-04-01Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:C XieFull Text:PDF
GTID:2199360305498431Subject:Finance
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Since the capitalization reform of housing distribution implemented in 1998, the real estate industry developed quickly in China. Till now, it has already become one of the pillar industries in China. And the housing expenditure, as one of the most important consumption expenditure received most attention due to its direct relation with the living condition of people.Besides, as the pillar industries of our country, the development of real estate industry affects not only the living standard but also the stability of the financial system. Therefore, the housing price, as the signal for the real estate market, should receive more attention. Especially in these years, the soaring housing price has become a burden for many residents and has influenced many aspects of the economic operation. How to make a reasonable guidance and control is a great challenge facing us and solving it requires us to have a deep understanding of what the determinants of housing price are.This paper specifically analyzes the supply and demand factors of the rising housing price and then uses the dynamic time series method to run unit root test, co-integration test and the Granger causality test among housing price, interest rates, exchange rates, inflation rates, M2, and the Shanghai Stock Index with the data from the first quarter in 1998 to the fourth quarter in 2009.After analyzing the influence the macroeconomic factors have on housing price, the paper then puts forward some macro-control policy recommendations for China's real estate market based on the empirical analysis.
Keywords/Search Tags:Housing Price, Macroeconomic Factors, Co-integration Test, Granger Causality Test
PDF Full Text Request
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