The Research On Transmission Mechanism Of Grain Prices Based On The APT-ECM Models

Grain is the foundation and security of people’s life. The stability of grain prices associated with the development of society and the state. In recent years, Frequent fluctuations in grain prices pose a threat to people’s life. Since the global food crisis in 2006, The association of The oil market and the grain market is strengthen continuously. In traditional sense, Oil prices affected food prices only in the production, transport and other aspects. But now the the biological energy has expansion, grain financialization has developed rapidly. The way that oil prices affected grain prices are more complicated. The oil shock bring great challenges to the stable of food prices. No matter grain prices rise or fall, the influences to China’s agricultural industry can not be underestimated both in depth and breadth. Therefore, measure the influence degree of oil prices on grain prices, explore the transmission mechanism of oil price to grain prices, has important significance to stabilize the grain price, ensuring the economic running smoothly.This paper analyzes the related factors affecting the food price with three aspects:The international market, domestic cost and market supply and demand factors, economic policy factors. And then construction the path analysis model with these factors. Quantity the effects of these factors on grain prices, emphatically analyzes the direct and indirect impact of oil price to grain prices, In order to reveal the the transmission mechanism of oil price to grain prices. With a perspective of price transfer asymmetry. Researching the transmission mechanism of oil prices at rising and falling stages transfer to the grain prices, including conduction relationship, the conduction of asymmetry, dynamic adjustment and transmission efficiency and transmission intensity. With grain price conduction of dynamic and long-term equilibrium relationship and short-term, Grain prices for oil prices rise and fall of the reaction time, lag effect, cumulative effect, adjust ability indicators as the foothold, formed a combination of analysis, the asymmetry error correction model, and econometrics test.Results show that the international oil price through other intermediary variable indirect impact on grain prices is larger, on the one hand, through the domestic cost and market supply and demand affect grain prices(agricultural means of production prices, consumer prices, production prices), on the other hand, through macroeconomic policies affect grain prices(the money supply, the RMB exchange rate).From January 2000 to November 2014, International oil prices rising and falling stages on wheat prices, rice prices, soybeans prices, corn prices by different transmission mechanism.(1) Oil prices on rising and falling stages transfer to four grain prices symmetry are differents: wheat, corn, price is asymmetric, soybean, rice price is symmetrical.(2) Four grain crops response to rising oil prices and falling speed each are not identical, wheat, soybeans, corn price reactions to oil prices rose faster than its response to the falling speed, The rice is opposite.(3) The adjustment range of rising oil prices is bigger than falling for corn price, but for wheat, soybean, and rice, it is opposite.(4) Oil prices transferred to the the price of wheat, soybeans, rice, corn prices has a lag effect, the impact of oil prices on the price of wheat lasts about five months, the influence of the soybeans, rice, corn prices in the price of lasts about six months.(5) Oil prices contributed to the four kinds of grain price level was in the order of, soybean > rice > corn > wheat.