Analysis On China Main Grain Prices Fluctuation Range

Grain is the source of human survival and economic development,and important strategic materials for national welfare and the people's livelihood as well.The stability and security of grain market is the important foundation of social security and economic development of our nation.Under the condition of market economy system,market regulation must be combined with the government macroeconomic regulation and control to make grain prices fluctuate at a reasonable range.At present,under the background of globalization in China grain security is closely connected with the world,and grain market becomes more open.China's grain security is influenced by international economic,financial capital and energy etc.more and more,adding a great deal of passivity and complexity.In recent 10 years global grain prices fluctuated drastically many times with higher frequency,greater amplitude and larger range.In China market mechanism is not sound,market information is not transparent,and the process that supply and demand form price is not smooth,so grain prices fluctuation could lead to drastic volatility of production,import and export,and consumption,impacting the industrial base of agricultural production and farmers' income.In the long run China's grain supply and demand is still in a tight balance phase.The rigid demand growth,the upgrading of consumption structure and the regional contradiction in supply and demand make the task arduous securing grain total balance and structure balance.So food security situation is not optimistic.Under the background of big domestic and international political and economic environment changes,China's government assesses the situation and puts forward a new national food security strategy summed up as "relying mainly on ourselves,basing on domestic,ensuring production capacity,modest imports,being supported with science and technology" as the fundamental guide line of grain macro-control policy in next stage.China's government needs to further deepen the reform of the marketization of grain as orientation,building grain prices formation mechanism determined by supply and demand,and make grain prices play a role on the regulation of production and consumption.On this basis,China's government perfects regulation system,enhances the capacity of government regulation and maintains the basic stability of grain market to ensure that grain prices fluctuate within a reasonable range.Research shows that China's government has always seen controlling prices rising and guarding against inflation as an important task of macro-control,with a generally lower tolerance for grain prices volatility than the world's main food export nations.That is an inevitable requirement of our nation's total grain situation,political system and social structure.Under the new complex situation of grain market,China needs to rebuild effective grain macroeconomic regulation mechanism to realize that grain prices fluctuate at a reasonable range after promoting the role of market mechanisms.The purpose of this research is to answer what the reasonable range that grain prices run within is,and how to implement China's government's request to ensure that grain prices run within that range.Through in-depth analysis of historical price data,it summarizes and analyzes the basic characteristics of the grain prices volatility and the main factors affecting the grain prices fluctuation,and then predicts what new changes China's grain prices fluctuation will show under the possible future background that target price policy and market mechanism decide grain prices.Through model analysis,it researchs the long-term trend of grain prices,strips fluctuating factors deviating from the maincenter of the trend,then quantitates the reasonable fluctuation range of grain prices(year-on-year price index and fluctuation price index).In the end,the paper defines China's grain prices reasonable fluctuations range.According to the national new grain security strategy and the government's request to ensuring grain prices fluctuate at a reasonable range,it sets up the government regulation border for grain prices,warning indicators,early warning area,and response mechanism and so on with the result of model operation.