| In the just-concluded "two sessions", the government work reports proposed supporting rigid housing demand and stabilizing housing needs as the key emphasis in work, which reflects the urgency and importance of solving realty problem. The realty industry plays a very important role in our society:First of all, the stability of the realty industry is a necessary condition for people living and working in peace; second, the realty industry is linked to a number of downstream industries, so it plays a pivotal role in the national economy; Then, the stability of the realty industry provides good conditions for urbanization; Then, the stability of the realty industry provides a buffer space for the economic restructuring; Finally, the stability of the realty industry can promote social harmony. For the high prices, the Chinese government has taken many measures to control the realty market, but seeing from the historical data of the realty market, these measures did not solve the problem fundamentally. Monetary policy is the key to solving the problem of the realty market. That what kinds of monetary policy can make sense is worth studying. This paper selects Shanghai’s realty market as a typical sample to analyze the mechanism of monetary policy impacting on realty market, then to discuss that what kind of monetary policy can bring a healthy realty market. In summary, exploring the mechanism of monetary policy impacting on the realty market has important practical significance for the real estate market.Based on the study of academic achievement of Chinese and foreign scholars, the paper uses four variables, including M2, the five-year loan rate and land price, to make empirical analysis on statistical data from the first quarter of 2004 to the fourth quarter of 2014. Then VAR model of monetary policy and the real estate price is set up to verify the intrinsic relationship among four variables. This paper consists of six sections:Chapter one is an introduction. This chapter focuses on the logic and the significance of the research, and then summarizes the academic achievement of Chinese and foreign scholars, then proposes research framework.Chapter two is the overview of Shanghai realty market, including the analysis of Shanghai’s location, the economic development of Shanghai, the realty market in Shanghai.Chapter three is the description of theory of the implication of money supply and interest rates on the realty price. This section describes the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, which includes monetary channel and credit channel.Chapter four explains the concept of four indicators and describes the theory of VAR models.Chapter five describes the factors that affect the realty prices, and then makes statistical analysis, including Stationary test, JJ test, Granger causality test, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition.Chapter six describes the research results. According to the results of empirical analysis and foreign experiences, this section makes policy recommendations.Through establishing four indicators and applying VAR model to explore the inherent mechanism, three conclusions are settled:First, the real estate price are affected by M2, the land price and the five-year lending rates, the four indicators can form a stable equilibrium relationship in the long term. In other words, an increase in M2 will increase the real estate price; an increase in the land price will raise the real estate price; a reduction in the five-year lending rate will increase the real estate price. Second, M2 in the short and long term is one of the factors affecting the real estate price, the land price in the short and long term is a factor affecting the real estate price, five-year loan interest rates in the long term is one of the factors affecting the real estate price. Third, the five-year loading rate contributes more to the realty price than M2. In other words, compared to M2, five-year lending rates could lead to a bigger impact on the realty price. |
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