The Influence Of Macroeconomic Factors On The Quality Of Credit Assets Of Commercial Banks In China

With the improvement of China’s market economy system, commercial banks have gradually become the most important social and economic activities of financial intermediation institutions, with this irreplaceable influence in the social life of various economic body. However, the banking sector is also related to the national economy and a risk-intensive industry, the vast majority of the bank’s operating profit from the business of risk, from the traditional deposit and lending business, and commercial bank credit asset quality more influenced by macroeconomic factors. In this context, on the impact of China’s commercial bank credit asset quality macroeconomic factors is particularly necessary.In this paper, the full study on the basis of relevant literature, from both theoretical and empirical perspectives on macroeconomic factors analysis of commercial bank credit asset quality. From a theoretical perspective, this paper introduces the credit risk assets and credit asset quality and credit evaluation system factors affecting asset quality, combing the historical situation of China’s commercial bank credit asset quality, and analyzed theoretically GDP growth inflation, money supply, and industrial and other macroeconomic factors on the quality of credit assets of commercial banks; and secondly from the empirical point of view of macroeconomic factors of commercial bank credit asset quality quantitative analysis, the paper selected in 2004 to related data in 2014, partly using Granger causality test to verify the impact of each macro indicators of non-performing loan ratio, which is also from the empirical validation of the aforementioned macro-level factors on the credit quality of the correctness of the impact of the theory; On the other hand the use of ECM and VAR model, impulse response function and the impact of GDP growth, year on year CPI, M2 growth rate of industrial added value and long-performing loan ratio of non-performing loan ratio itself generated variance decomposition analysis, each macro factors effectiveness and continuous assessment of contrast.Empirical conclusions:First, the entire analysis and the results of error correction model estimation Association shows that both the short and long term, M2 growth rate of industrial added value rate of non-performing loan ratio long NPLR negatively correlated, while GDP growth, CPI year on year non-performing loan ratio had a positive correlation between the empirical results are consistent with theories postulate, GDP growth only because of the impact of the time lag conductivity did not show a negative correlation, the judge in the text of pulse analysis has also been verified; second The results show that the Granger causality test, GDP growth rate, up CPI, M2 growth rate of industrial added value rate of value-added long had influence on non-performing loans ratio NPLR, entirely theoretical study echoes earlier macroeconomic indicators of the impact of each of; third, by pulse analysis, we can draw the long term, GDP growth, M2 growth rate of industrial added value rate of value-added long NPL ratio NPLR negatively correlated, while CPI year on year positively correlated to NPLR, while in the short term, the impact of each variable on the credit quality of assets is not significant; fourth, through variance decomposition discovery of commercial bank credit asset quality in the long term, influenced by M2 money supply growth rate is the deepest, and In the short term, commercial bank credit asset quality are more influenced by their own non-performing loan ratio and GDP growth.For empirical conclusion, this article from the two dimensions of commercial banks and government regulatory agencies to make our recommendations. Commercial banks should focus on the following aspects:First, should be strengthened prudential credit funds, and strengthen its credit risk management. Second, we should strengthen domestic and international macroeconomic analysis, more attention to the national regulatory authorities and the release of macroeconomic policies and the establishment of a comprehensive macroeconomic volatility adapt risk control system. Third, it should speed up innovation of financial products, to explore changes to adapt to the economic cycle of products or measures as soon as possible, in order to optimize the structure of the bank’s own credit assets, so that it can adapt to changes in macroeconomic factors. Government regulators should focus on the following aspects:the first, the government should develop and adapt the macroeconomic cycle of monetary policy, should fully consider the impact of this policy will be to commercial bank credit asset quality arising. Second, the financial supervisory authorities should weigh the balance of commercial bank competition between efficiency and market stability, the establishment of an effective system of prudential supervision. Third, the relevant departments should support the construction of multi-level capital market, making the commercial banks are rich enough to deal with financial products punch macroeconomic factors affect their credit asset quality.