A Research On Relationship Between China's Economic Cycle And Energy Consumption Cycle Based On The Co-integration ╠―corrected Deviation Model

Since reform and opening up, China's economic growth has entered a period of rapid development, there are still large fluctuations, the cyclical fluctuations in apparent. Energy source is basic material to social production and human existence, and also is one important input factors of economic growth. On the one hand, the consumption of energy source can meet the national energy production and social life, able to promote the development of the energy industry and promote economic growth, on the another hand, economic development will boost other energy consumption, therefore, energy consumption exists between economic growth and causality.The paper from 1978 to 2008, according to China's energy consumption and gross domestic product information, division of economic cycle and energy consumption cycle, according Granger causality test and the establishment of Co integration--error correction model.Proved China's economic growth and energy consumption were tested cyclical fluctuations from 1978 to 2008, and energy consumption cycle and the relationship between the performances of the economic cycle: coherence, coordination and hystersis;Economic cycle and energy consumption cycle are exists one-way causal relationship: the impact of the economic cycle to cycle energy consumption, but the cycle of energy consumption has no effect on the economic cycle. Economic growth can effectively promote the increase of energy consumption, mainly in: within the long-term static, China'GDP increased by 1% will make the energy consumption increase of 0.48%; in the short term, China's GDP increased by 1% will make the 0.06% increase in energy consumption; China's GDP and energy consumption of short-term fluctuations deviate from the long-run equilibrium relationship between them, and 15.76% of the deviation from equilibrium, which will be adjusted within a year, that lag the economic cycle energy consumption for one year period, energy consumption does not deviate from the equilibrium value far. Meanwhile, analysis economic significance four conclusions drawn on the model.Finally, based on the conclusion of the economic cycle and the relationship between energy consumption cycle. Through analysis of the current national economic situation and development of the energy industry, suggests to strengthen the early warning detection of the economic cycle, also applies to economic cycle and fluctuation in energy consumption cycle, actively adjust to energy industry. Through increased energy supply capacity, establishment a wide range of energy consumption structure, adhere to energy saving, pollution control, development of innovative energy, and active"counter-cyclical"regulation, and to achieve the coordination of the energy industry and national economy development.