GEM Management Earnings Forecast Accuracy And Impact Factors

From the establishment in 2009, GEM market has experienced a low tide in the period of 2010 to 2011, but following with a outburst at the end of 2012,market enthusiasm was completely lit. GEM index has grown to nearly 3000 points from 585.44 points at the end of 2012, being a shining star in the capital market. More and more stock market investors start focusing on the GEM,and investing companies in GEM. Therefore, ensuring the healthy and stable development of the GEM market is important. Companies listed in GEM generally grows fast, with characteristics that performance fluctuates strongly and generally can not persist long. Therefore, the management earnings forecast information disclosure system is very suitable for this kind of market, which cries out for the performance information, especially the future performance information. Currently, there are two main access to profit prediction information: market intermediaries and company management. Due to a better understanding of the actual situation of the management of listed companies, the performance forecast released from company management has more practical significance for investors. Based on these, this research studies the accuracy of information management performance forecast of the GEM, and predict the accuracy of information from a wide range of factors affecting the analysis.Because of the GEM market is still in early stages of development, in order to make the data comparable, reflecting the development trend of the GEM, this paper selects the GEM listed companies which published annual reports from2011 to 2013 as samples. This paper does empirical research for accuracy of information management and its influencing factors with multiple linear regression method. The statistical results of performance prediction accuracy showed that, overall, the earning prediction accuracy of management of theGEM market is not optimistic, and there is not big progress in past three years.Analysis about factors affecting the accuracy of the prediction information indicates that for the corporate governance structure, the size of the independent directors and the board of supervisors has no positive impact on improving management performance prediction accuracy, but the empirical results of 2013 show that the size of supervisors board has turned to positive impact;Institutional investors should play an active and positive role, but the results show that, they played a opposite role in the GEM market; Ownership concentration does not significantly impact the performance forecast accuracy;Media attention, as a new factors, presented positive correlation with the GEM performance prediction information accuracy, which means it played an effective supervision role; This study also finds that a relatively good companies,such as companies with high growth rate of net assets, small financial risk of businesses, posted more accurate information about performance prediction;performance prediction information posted from larger listed companies are more accurate as well.In the last chapter, this paper makes a detailed analysis for the study results,put forward the corresponding policy proposal for how to improve the quality of management performance forecast information in the GEM. Meantime, this paper summaries and analyzes the deficiencies and defects specific analysis summary, in order to provide a reference for future research. Finally, this paper makes an outlook for study of performance forecast in the GEM, and put forward some possible research directions available in the future.