Research On The Influence Of CEO's Prior Management Forecast Accuracy On The Quality Of Current Performance Forecast Information

As one of the most important predictive information,performance prediction is more and more concerned by the management level and investors of listed companies.With the disclosure of performance prediction information,the management level of listed companies could effectively reduce the problem of asymmetric information with investors and reduce investment risk of investors.The usefulness of information is built on the basis of reliability.Only performance prediction information of high quality could really play its role in improving the transparency of information.In performance prediction,CEO should make a reasonable estimation for the company's future.Therefore,in addition to the objective factors,the quality of the performance prediction information will also be affected by the managers' ability to predict.To a certain extent,the accuracy of CEO prediction in the past could reflect the predictive ability of CEO.The higher the accuracy of historical prediction is,the stronger the prediction ability will be.Therefore,CEO has the ability to disclose high quality performance prediction information in the current period.However,foreign studies have shown that when summarizing the reasons for the accurate prediction of the past,CEO will tend to attribute the reasons for accurate prediction to their efforts.Under the impetus of multiple accurate prediction,managers will overestimate their own prediction ability due to self-attribution bias,which leads to the negative impact on the performance prediction information disclosed currently.The economic environment and cultural background of listed companies in China are different from those in foreign countries.It is worthy of our study whether the accuracy of CEO's historical prediction will have an impact on the quality of current performance prediction information in this special environment of our country.In this paper,the research method of the combination of normative analysis and empirical test is used and influencing factors of performance prediction information are analyzed in depth using knowledge of multiple disciplines such as economics,management and psychology etc.In this paper,the relevant literatures at home and abroad are summarized firstly.Secondly,the existing performance prediction system and its changing path are introduced briefly and the basic theory that may be involved is analyzed.On this basis,an empirical test is carried out on the impact of CEO's historical performance prediction accuracy on the performance prediction information quality using performance prediction information disclosed by listed companies between 2012 and 2015 and combining with the situation of the accuracy of prediction of CEO of three years before the sample year.After the empirical study,it is found that the accuracy of the historical prediction accuracy of CEO's performance prediction will have an impact on the quality of current performance prediction information.Specifically,the more accurate the CEO historical performance prediction is,the lower the accuracy of the current performance prediction information which CEO disclose will be,the shorter the prediction interval will be and the more timely it will be disclosed.Prediction accuracy is the lifeline of the quality of performance prediction information.Only under the premise of accurate historical prediction,investors will be more concerned about the way of disclosure and timeliness.Therefore,on the basis of the above research,it is also explored whether the expansion of the scale of the board of directors and its independence could reduce the adverse effect of historical prediction accuracy on the accuracy of the current performance prediction information.The results show that the expansion of the scale of the board of directors could mitigate the adverse effects but the improvement of board independence has no effect on reducing the adverse effects.