Study On The Regional Lavering Effect Of The Relation Between The Real Estate Price Fluctuations And Bank Credit

With the rapid development of China’ economy, the real estate market and banking sector have made outstanding contributions to national economic development. At the same time, it has a certain correlation between the two markets. In China’s long-term loans, housing loans accounted for as much as 80%, and therefore the size of bank credit to the fluctuation of the real estate prices have a certain degree of influence. With the changes in prices, the government will put the appropriate size of the real estate credit policies of macro-control of bank credit. The two markets influence each other and develop together. In this paper, the research on the relationship between the macro level and the price fluctuations between bank credits has very important significance. And in the light of the large differences among regional economic development, industrial structures, consumption patterns, the level of financial markets and the real estate market in our country. The paper will also do the study on the relationship between price fluctuations and bank credit from the perspective of regional layered effect.This paper will study according to the "Study Prepared --Situation Description-The Theory Analysis-The Empirical Analysis-Conclusions and Policy Advice":After studying on past literatures scholars and do the relevant summary; The paper described the price fluctuations from the different perspectives,and combined status quo of the real estate bank credit which shows the relevance of the two markets, and finally compare the status quo under the geographical differences between the bank credit and the real estate price fluctuations; chapter four will analyze the relationship impact of real estate price fluctuations and bank credit from different paths, building a theoretical model of real estate price fluctuations to analyze the impact of various macroeconomic factors to the real estate price fluctuations. Therefore do the preparation to the theoretical basis for the later empirical analysis; Then the paper will do the empirical analysis of the relationship between bank credit and real estate price fluctuations from two layers:Firstly, examining the relationship between short and long term impact from the macro level by establishing ARDL model, it found that the bank credit is leading to price fluctuations in the long-term causes of short-term is not significant; regardless of short and long term, price fluctuations are significant causes of bank credit; Then using panel data of 35 cities conducted GMM analysis to do the empirical analysis based on the regional differences which divides into the eastern, central and western region, in order to analyze the interaction of bank credit and price fluctuations geographical stratification effects. The Relationship between real estate price fluctuations the bank credit has the regional layering effects obviously. The western region has the maximum credit elasticity and the central region is minimal.After the describing of the status quo, the theoretical analysis and the empirical, this paper will put forward four policy recommendations in order to improve the development of the real estate market and the making of bank credit policy at the last chapter.