The Study Of The Influential Factors Of China’s Real Estate Price Changes Based On Regional Differences

In recent years, with the China’s rapid economic growth and urbanization, China has experienced sharp rise in real estate prices which are also significant regional imbalances. Therefore, from the perspective of regional differences, this paper study the main influence factors on China’s real estate price fluctuation, as well as the similarities and differences between different regions of the real estate price in China. This study will provide some theoretical evidences and references for the regional coordinated development and national macro policies.Firstly, by using of the Theil index, this paper confirms that China’s real estate price has obvious regional difference which has gradually increasing trend. The overall differences mainly come from the regional differences and differences within the region are caused by the inter-provincial differences between eastern and western regions; while, the inter-provincial differences in the central region is relatively small.Secondly, based on the adaptive expectations assumption, this paper establishes a theoretical model including short-term international capital inflows. Basing on the theoretical model, by using of the31provincial-level quarterly panel data, this paper uses panel co-integration and panel error correction model to carry out empirical research and comparative analysis on Chinese national, Eastern, middle and western area real estate short-term price fluctuations. For national, East, and West area, the real estate price expectations are main influence factors of real estate price short-term fluctuations; city household disposable income also has a positive impact on short-term price fluctuations. But it is smaller in the central region. The credit scale only has a great influence on the short-term fluctuations in the Eastern area; and the influence of the loan rate to the national and three regional were not significant. When the short term prices deviate from long-term equilibrium price, there exists negative correction mechanism in country and various regions, which show that it will be return to a balanced level quickly.Thirdly, this paper constructs a partial equilibrium model based on the long-term real estate price fluctuation. It may lead to variable auto correlation problem caused by the lag variables. Therefore, in order to solve the self correlation and data stationary issues, this paper use dynamic panel estimation method of generalized GMM to study the long-term real estate price fluctuation effects. From a long-term perspective, factors such as the real estate prices expected, disposable income of residents, residents’mortgage loans, real estate development loans, period of construction and installation costs, unit area land acquisition costs and demographic all have significantly positive effect; while, international capital inflow and housing mortgage loan rate does not affect the long-term price.Finally, in the panel vector auto regression (Panel Data Vector Autoregression, PVAR) model framework, we use2005-2012mainland China31provinces annual panel data to study factors on monetary policy, fiscal policy, financial liberalization degree, land policy and city rate etc. The study find that:China money supply in the next issue has larger effect on the real estate price and the impact of financial liberalization is less. The local government land financial dependence degree and the rate of city have great influence on the real estate price after two periods. In addition, with the extension of the forecast period, the disturbance caused by non price variables gradually increased, while the price itself disturbances part gradually decline. In the eighteenth period, the variance decomposition results tend to be stable; variance caused by the real estate price reach89.73%, which still occupies the dominant position. But other factors of the total variance accounted for about all of the predicted variance ratio was10.27%. The order from large to small in turn arranged as follows:money supply4.54%; city rate of2.42%; the local government to the land financial dependence on the1.34%real estate tax;1.15%; financial liberalization disturbance0.81%.