A Study On The Impact Mechanism Of Chinese Firms’ Import Duration

Recently,there are a lot of scholars research the duration of trade relationships. They used the K-M Survival model and continuous time series COX model, discrete time series clog-clog、logit、probit models to analyze the duration of import or export relationships in product、enterprise、product-enterprise level and have given relevant guiding significance. Usually,there are search cost, test cost and training cost to establish an import business.The cost can avoided if there are some relevant measures to prolong the duration of import relationships. So that it could increase the corporate profits.This paper used the matched data of China’s Customs Database and Chinese Industrial Enterprise Database analyzing the determinants of duration of import relationships of Chinese enterprises.Used the K-M Survival model to research the general status of duration of import relationships of Chinese enterprises on different types of data. The results of the K-M Survival model analysis are that the mean duration of import relationships is 1.8 year,the enterprises with a lower tariff and the foreign-funded enterprises have longer import relationships.Used the discrete time series clog-clog model to analyze the 333288 durations of import relationships of 39309 Chinese enterprises. The results of the discrete-time clog-log model estimation are that the determinants about duration of import relationships contain the enterprise ownership system、the tariff gravity variables and other enterprises’characteristic variables,and that they all affect the duration of import relationships significantly. The result is stable and steady while testing it though the logit and probit model.The conclusion of this paper have put forward practical significance to the Chinese enterprises and government departments.On the enterprises aspect, this paper examines affection of the characteristics of the Suppliers’countries factors to the import trade duration, which provides importers a reference,so that they can select a sustained and stable import trade during all suppliers, and saving costs. The paper pointed out that there is threshold effect in the duration of Chinese enterprises import trade, the companies should not only increase the supplies blindly,but should consider consolidating the existing import trade relations. On the Government aspect, the paper analyzes the impact of tax and business ownership and other enterprise features variable to the import trade duration, the author recommends that when the Government in formulating protective tariffs to protect the domestic economy,they should consider tax impact on import trade duration, maximizely the reduce the conversion costs of enterprises import trade. While the government in the formulation of trade policy process should taking into account the import duration differences of the different ownership enterprises when be guided under the premission of trade liberalization, so it can extend the duration of the import business and ensure the stability of China’s imports.