Study On The Influence Of China's Wood Pulp Import Duration On The Quality Of Imported

At present,China's paper and paper-products making enterprises are actively developing,and the paper industry is rapidly entering the fast development track.China has become a veritable world paper product consumer and producer.As an important raw material for the paper industry,wood pulp has a serious structural shortage in domestic supply and is extremely dependent on overseas markets.Maintaining the stability of wood pulp trade is critical to the industrial safety and development.Once the import of wood pulp is interrupted or temporary shortage,it will have a bad impact on China.On the other hand,China's pulp structure is characterized by low rate of wood pulp,and there is still a certain gap compared with its of advanced countries.It is significant to increase the number of imported wood pulp However,the global high-quality wood resources gradually decrease,and the quality of China's imported wood forest products has declined.On this basis,to find the reasons for changes in the imported wood pulp quality in the duration view,and to improve the quality of imported wood pulp are significant to the upgrading of China's paper industry and wood processing manufacturing industry.Firstly,based on the K-M survival analysis,this article measures the duration and survival probability of China's imported wood pulp.Secondly,the nested Logit model is used to measure the quality,article also analyze the quality change trend and characteristics in different product and countries.On this basis,article empirically analyze the impact of the duration of China's imported wood pulp on the quality,and then according to the economic level to clarify two groups to test the detailed effect;later robustness test has been done,so as to explore the impact of import duration on the quality of China's imported wood pulp from different views.Finally,this article puts forward some suggestions to promote the quality of China's imported wood pulp.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)The duration of China's imported wood pulp is relatively short,with a median survival of 1 year and an average of 4.77 years;there is a negative time dependence effect on the change in the survival rate,and the “threshold value" is 12 years;(2)The quality of China's imported wood pulp has risen in fluctuations,and there have been two inverted "U"quality changes in 2007-2009 and 2010-2014;the highest average quality imported is sulfite wood Pulp,the lowest is semi-chemical wood pulp;the quality of wood pulp from Canada,Russia,New Zealand,the United States,and Germany is relatively high;(3)empirical results found that duration of imported wood pulp has a significant positive effect on the quality;but by grouping the economic level of the imported country,it shows duration has a significant positive impact on the quality of imported wood pulp,it shows a positive circulation promotion effect,called "high quality and steady progress",while in developing economies there is a negative effect.The longer the duration of imported wood pulp,the more “low quality lock-in” will occur;(4)Per capital GDP of the imported country,trade openness,and labor force show significantly affect the quality of imported wood pulp.Forest coverage of has a negative impact on the quality of wood pulp.In addition,imported country 's human capital variable is not significant,so does the variable of whether or not it signed a free trade agreement.