Study On The Characteristics And Influencing Factors Of The Evolution Of Technological Trajectories

Technology, the production of science evolution, represents the latest scientific and technological achievements. As new technologies are developed on the basis of the existing ones, and the evolution of technology is dynamic. Technological trajectories, which can depict the path and rule of technology evolution, pay an important role in technology innovation. The transition of technological trajectories can not only produce technology development, but also bring about technological leapfrogging, which can influence the entire the industrial distribution Therefore, it makes sense to study influencing factors of the evolution of technological trajectories.The aim of the study is to build the interior and exterior effect model of technological trajectories, taking two industries, aero-engine and electric automobile as examples based on the systematic point of view. The model helps to deepen the research contents of technology evolution theory, and guide the catch-up of latecomers.On the basis of technology evolution theory, we adopt citation network SPLC calculation method, co-term analysis method and literature reading to analyze the factors which influence the evolution of technological trajectories. While identifying the technological trajectories, related patent data in database of Thomson Innovation is collected. Then, Patent reference matrixes are established, so that SPLC calculation method can be used to identify the technological trajectories. Characteristics in different stages of technological trajectories are summed based on technology life cycle theory. While analyzing the influence factors, co-term analysis method is used to find the technology genes with in technology trajectory. The functions of technology genes are analyzed. As for the environment of technology trajectories, four main factors are summarized based on existing studies, namely political environment, energy subject, correlative industry and market demand, of which the influences on technology trajectories are analyzed. What’s more, strategies by which latecomers can catch up when take advantage of technology trajectories are also put forward, i.e. cooperation strategy, following-up strategy.Lastly, conclusions and limitations are given based on previous analysis.