Empirical Analysis Of The Shadow Banking’s Effect On The Real Economy

Some researches have indicated that the shadow banking plays an important role in the economic operation. Our country has come to the crucial moment of the interest rate liberalization, considering the new situation, it has very important significance to study the influence of shadow banking on China’s real economy.The full arguments about shadow banking include the following several parts: the definition、it’s development situation and operation mode and so on. In this paper we use the annual data from 1993 to 2013 to measure the size of the shadow banking, and through the establishment of multiple linear regression model to analyze the effects of shadow banking on China’s economy, especially the different impacts on the three major industries. The result of the research shows that, the shadow banking has a positive impact on China’s economy,and the impact on the first industry is the largest, followed by the second industry, the impact on the third industry is the smallest. At the same time, the existence of the shadow banking has changed the traditional economy largely, affecting the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy, and to some extent change the meaning of economic symbols like the interest rate. This paper tries to explain the result from two aspects:the production efficiency of enterprises is different and government adopts different policies on different industries.On the one hand, due to the different policies on the three industry, the financing model of the three industry has changed, making the three industrial entities have different financing mode, therefor provide a space for the development of shadow banking; on the other hand, because of the different efficiency of enterprises, the process of monetary policy transmission and the final effect have been distorted. The second and third industries have more state-owned enterprises,usually large or medium-sized, it’s easy for them to obtain more credit support; on the contrary, more enterprises of the first industry are small and medium-sized who have more management risk, it’s hard for them to obtain bank loans, gain financial support using channels different from the traditional commercial bank credit channel is one of the choices.Studying the different effects of the shadow banking on the all sectors of thereal economy during the interest rate liberalization, is good for both grasping the market position of shadow banking accurately, and making full use of the positive effect of the shadow banking to promote the process of industrial structure adjustment in china. Making a rational distribution of the shadow banking and guiding the shadow banking into the real economy in a proper way, are important both for the regulators to adopt appropriate regulatory measures to supervise the shadow banking, and for the shadow banking itself to have a healthy development, and this research will have a positive effect.