Research On The Influence Led By Shadowbank On The Banking Stability In China

"Shadow bank" is a recently emerging term which has been known to the public in the global financial crisis in 2007.With the growing number of shadow bank, financial products continue to burst less than expected earnings, and other private lending companies deserted storm. These events pushed shadow banks to the cusp, and had a negative impact stability. Therefore, a further study on the shadow banking system has realistic significance.The shadow bank system includes three typical types, which are shadow bank of commercial banks, non-bank financial institutions and informal financial institutions. In recent years, shadow bank system developed at rapid pace. The total size of shadow bank has reached 4.5 billion RMB. Meanwhile, accompanied with the macro-economy development, commercial banks have accumulated much capital and become more and more open. Shadow bank has two edges on the stability of commercial bank system.Theoretically, the shadow bank will do help to change commercial bank traditional business model and expand credit creation channels and expand business innovation.Therefore enhance the stability of our banking system, Besides, because the exists of high leverage, maturity mismatch, independence and low transparency, service single object,etc., the liquidity risk, credit risk, market risk and operational risk may transfer through risk transfer mechanism to the banking system, damage stability.According to the theoretical analysis, the preliminary findings of the shadow banking stability in our banking system plays double role, then we have to combine closely with the shadow banking system stability of the relationship between banks between the two empirical studies. First, we select the financial institution loan growth(Stable1), the commercial bank’s capital adequacy ratio(Stable2), commercial banks return on assets(Stable3), integrated banking stability index(Stable4) the stability of the banking sector as a proxy variable linear regression, and found a linear regression model can not accurately reflect the relationship between the two, then we select the size of the shadow banking,financial sector, total fixed asset investment growth rate, GDP and the ratio of M2 money supply and import growth rates four explanatory variables, using the ADF test,co-integration test, Granger causality test, build economic models, the results obtained show the existence of a threshold effect between the two, that is, when the size of the shadow banking is below the threshold, with the development of the shadow banking,China’s banking system Stability is also enhanced to some extent, and if exceeding the threshold, as it will reduce excessive development and stability. Therefore, for the shadow banking sector, we must learn to deal with the dialectic, we cannot allow its unconstrained development, we cannot adopt a "one size fits all" arbitrary method negated, and to better guide through the relevant regulatory authorities, standardized and efficient development of the shadow banking while improving the stability of China’s commercial banks.