Prediction Methods * ST Xiakehuanbao Based Financial Distress

Economic development make a spurt of progress of modern society, the opportunities and threats coexist. If the enterprises want to better vary from minute to minute, in the modern society more quickly, we need to understand "machine is no longer lost, loses will never come again". At the same time, we should avoid risks and threats, and reduce the probability of financial crisis. Otherwise, the enterprise will be filled into financial difficulties or even on the verge of bankruptcy under the operational risk. Financial prediction is to predict the potential crisis in enterprise business process management of enterprise development. Financial distress prediction can improve management decision-making ability of the enterprise, provide important basis for the enterprise decision, preventing operation failure. In addition, the stock market and other institutions also can be a very good understanding of the business of listing corporation, better supervision, management of listing corporation. In 1991, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have been established which opened a prelude to China’s securities market development. With the vigorous development of the securities market, Chinese enterprises acquire more opportunities. As of 2014 October, there are 2,371 companies which list in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. With the development of economy, the financial distress of listed enterprises exposed more and more problems which can not be ignored. And it becomes a requirement of the times development studying on prediction of financial distress enterprises.In this paper, the related theory of financial distress prediction has been combed. Considering the actual conditions of our country, we define that the listing corporation into financial distress will be special treatment. And then introduces the Altman multiple model, F-score model and the new Z model of Zhang Ling. Altman multiple model opened up a new direction of listing corporation financial forecast. The Z-model is the scholar continuous improvement in research. This paper selects the Xiakehuanbao as a case. We pay attention to the news of special treatment of Xiake, and analyzes the financial distress causes. Then we select the Altman multiple discriminate model, F score model and the Zn model of Zhang Ling to analyze financial data from 2009 to 2013 and predict Xiake financial status. After the research discovery, Xiake in 2012 total assets in the creation of the inflow and outflow of cash aspect ability is poor. Asset liquidity and profitability is also gradually poor. Xiake is facing greater financial risk, and the business situation is in financial difficulties or will be ST. This paper argues that enterprise financial prediction, should the qualitative analysis and the quantitative analysis. If you are using the year before ST data forecast, Z model, Zn model and F score model can be selected as prediction model; if it is analysis and prediction within a few years ago of data, the basis of qualitative analysis with the F fraction model combining prediction accuracy is higher. The method results more scientific and more suitable for enterprise development needs in the prediction and monitoring ongoing financial difficulties. The enterprises in the financial distress prediction should pay attention to the qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis complement each other. Compared with the complex high technology content model, Z model, Zn model and F score model can achieve the purpose of forecasting. Small and medium enterprises select the simple models, not only reduce the cost but also to predict the crisis. In the long process of financial distress prediction, the author prefers F score model. F score model of wide scope of application is low cost and high.