Analysis On Financial Early-warning For The Listed-companies Of Manufacturing In China Based On Z-Score Model

With the development of today’s social market economy。More and more companies facing the development of the financial risk in the is the very high competitive environment, the establishment of a good financial early warning mechanism fore very enterprise a very necessary measures。Good financial early warning system mechanisms allows the risk to achieve a good predict ability, control ability, and can improve sexual。From the theoretical analysis on the financial early warning system, this paper introduces the definition of functions and procedures of the financial early warning system, and combine empirical analysis shows that enterprises should establish a good financial early-warning mechanism to help companies better correct prediction and prevention of financial crises, but also relevant departments on the market, effective regulation to ensure that the interests of investors, creditors, so that the entire capital market development can safely benign。The article by the Z value is calculated for the three years prior to the special treatment and is not special treatment company comparison, trend analysis, come to the listed company’s financial position is not the collapse of a sudden, there is a gradual deterioration of the state; and generally at a more normal orientation is not a special deal with the Z value of listed companies, there is no strong fluctuations, Z-value refer to predict financial risk; generally at a minimum Z value in the special treatment that year the boss company and the more close to the years of being processed, the stronger the predictive ability of the model Z points。In this paper, the theory with reality, qualitative combination of quantitative aspects listed companies’ financial early warning analysis。In previous studies mostly focused on the argument the relevance and reliability of cash flow information, on the basis of absorbing previous results, respectively, from the theoretical and empirical focus on the effectiveness of cash flow information were demonstrated for the perfect manufacturing Industry in China listed companies’ financial early warning research has a certain reference value。Finally, the data collected for the newer data, the model empirical results more convincing and practicality, and the early warning model to refine and improve methods for the deficiencies of the model。...