Research On The Financial Sustainability Of China’s Urban And Rural Resident’s Pension Insurance System

With the deepening of China’s aging population, pension problems have become more severe. February 21,2014, the State Council issued "Opinions on the Establishment of a Unified Basic Pension Insurance System for Urban and Rural Residents", and the new rural pension insurance and urban residents pension insurance into urban and rural residents pension insurance, marking the introduction of the comments in response to the aging of our country, to break the urban-rural dual structure has taken an important step. However, after the merger of urban and rural residents is sustainable pension finance become a new subject. This paper studies it.This paper is divided into six chapters. Chapter One sorts out introduction about domestic and foreign research literature, and describes the research content, method, innovation and deficiency. From the three-pillar pension system frame, the second chapter positions the urban and rural pension insurance, and describes the theoretical basis of the economics. Then, the paper defines the concept of urban and rural pension insurance system financial sustainability, and points out several relevant indicators of the system sustainability, and describes its mathematical foundation. Finally, it analyzes the financial responsibility of main supply. The third chapter describes the status of the development of urban and rural residents of China’s pension insurance, and points out five problems:low pay levels, the lack of a dynamic adjustment mechanism, the lack of attractiveness and the existence of adverse selection and low fund investment. The fourth chapter is the main part, predicts whether the urban and rural residents pension system is sustainability. After setting the model by assuming that variable, using long-term actuarial model to estimate future revenue and expenditure fund, shows that long-term results are not sustainable. The paper uses sensitivity method to analyze the impact on the balance of payments, which is replacement rates, pension age and fund investment rate. The last, based on unsustainable trends of urban and rural pension insurance, to make appropriate reform program, both to guarantee the basic resident’s livelihood, but also financial burden. Chapter V describes reformation pension insurance of three typical states, Japan, Germany and Sweden, and proposes five points enlightenment to China. Chapter VI presents four aspects rationalization policy recommendations, including pension insurance system to achieve top-level design, strengthen the role of government, the establishment of a dynamic adjustment mechanism and increase the fund’s rate of investment.